I've said it elsewhere and often, but I'm convinced that it won't be either of the current two HD formats that eventually dethrones standard DVDs.
They're here for the long haul, and whichever format wins the current format war, (if there even is a winner) it is destined to be a niche format, a la laserdisc, and won't ever gain mass market acceptance.
All IMHO of course.
KM