[limacharliewhiskey]

Right now, SD DVD is obviously the dominant format and will likely remain so for quite awhile, even though sales of DVDs are starting to plateau. That doesn't mean sales are going down, but it means there is no longer 10-15% yearly increases in sales.

It will likely take a long while before either HD format overtakes it, if that ever happens. I'm gonna say it will be at least 10 years before either HD format takes over 50% of the market. Part of this is based on how the HD programming on digital cable and satellite TV has gone, where it still remains a small portion of the programming. Most people simply don't wish to pay the premium prices for HD programming. I don't know what the price points are, but say regular cable is $40 per month, while digital cable with HD is $60-80 per month. It doesn't appear that a large number of people are switching to digital cable at the higher prices.

I seem the same correlation with HD DVD. Right now, SD DVD is at a price point that most people find acceptable for weekly viewing, and DVD rentals are priced at an affordable level for most consumers. Now, it's hard to say what the exact impact that the rental market had on DVD's mass acceptance by the average consumer, but it happened at around the same time that DVD became mainstream, in the 2001-2002 timeframe.

I don't think that either HD format gains mass acceptance until some sort of rental market is established for HD, and right now, Netflix is the only player, which is not enough. My local rental store, which was among the first DVD rental stores in 1999, has not yet touched HD, and neither has Blockbuster or Hollywood Video, the two biggest rental companies. I think for the average consumer to gain acceptance of HD, the rental market needs to be established. That's partly why laserdisc never gained mass acceptance, because LD rental stores were run by local independents.