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Originally Posted by ganthc
Yes, but blu-ray doesn't really have to be concerned with the .60 lens, because like you said, it's a dime a dozen. The real issue for Sony is to get the .85 lens on an economy of scale. But with 5 million bd players out there, already, how far off is it from achieving that? Especially if they can get China to manufacture the lens. Throwing a 20 million part order at China brings the unit cost down on the lens, which can make the bd players cheaper. You can argue that replication is also cheaper, but the same issue will arise when more replication centers open and prices fall on the cost of replication.
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The problem with the 0.85 NA lens is not only the scale at this point in time, its also the precision required to get it to function properly in the BD environment. The slightest imperfection and you get a defective BD player. The 0.60 NA lens is much more forgiving of imperfections. Its not something that they've figured out how to mass market cheaply, hence the high price.
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By your estimation, the only thing that should be costing Toshiba any real money is the blue laser, and that now is cheaper. Why haven't Toshiba players dropped even further in price?
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I believe they will come November. Once again, the entire line of HD DVD players were designed with economy of scale/mass market manufacturing in mind.
The HD-A3, HD-A30, and HD-A35 are all essentially the same player. They all have the same motherboard and core chips. The only differences are a few jacks added here or a chip or two added there that earns you some of the functionality differences we see that allow for more features and pricing tiers. But for the core player chips/board, they are all the same. Onkyo's player will be similar to the XA2 in design, so again we have the same core chips being used.
The Venturer player and all of the Chinese players that will be arriving all use the same layout and chips as well. Microsoft and Broadcom made a reference design which essentially was an DIY kit on how to make an HD DVD player - they tell you what you need, how to assemble it, and how to make it all work. I actually would not be surprised if the Venturer and HD-A3 were very similar internally. It may simply boil down to whether you're comfortable buying a noname brand or not for a piece of CE gear, because the HD DVD gameplan involves all players being essentially the same exact thing with a few addons tacked on here or there for enhanced functionality. That allows economy of scale, easier HDi testing, and reference firmware updates across the board. Though BD has done a great job of marketing, in the mass-marketing area they haven't even approached where HD DVD was Jan. of this year.