[ganthc]

Originally Posted by rixrex

First of all, the software prices will eventually fall, and the consumer who isn't going to spend bucks for the software immediately will rent, just as what happened with the initially expensive videotapes, and will still sometimes buy standard DVDs which won't be exclusive. The consumer doing the buying of players and the renting that will push the market isn't like some of us who collect regardless of price.

No one is saying they won't, and I certainly think they will drop on both sides. But until that happens, I don't think you will see the meteoric rise in sales for hd-dvd that coincides with the number of players that were sold...not at the current rate of prices for software. Granted, I am assuming that the people purchasing the hda2's are bargain shoppers only. They will buy hd-dvds at $15-17 range. But most retailers are starting at $25, and that's for catalog. My argument is that your progression on hd-dvd dominance seems to hinge on a quick turnaround of sales because of cheap players. But it still comes down to the price of the discs, and the types of movies being offered...and whether those are the ones that people want.

The sales of HD DVDs will also increase as software prices come down, which will happen. The production of the HD software and discs is not really any more expensive than standard discs once the initial outlay and mastering is done. Exclusivity agreements will fall aside, and I didn't say immediately, but they will when there's profit to be made in either format, and when the major studios can just license the productions out to qualified disc manufacturing firms. The profit potential will come from realizing there's a market still to be tapped of consumers who have the units to play the product. I don't see any software lead at the current moment as significant yet.

There is currently profit to be made on either side currently. Universal could make a lot of money if they went neutral. Paramount was neutral before. Warner has the top selling HD movie on highdef by being neutral. I don't think the argument of missed profits is being ignored or not realized. Singling out Fox, Disney, Lionsgate, Sony, and MGM for switching sides seems to be a bit biased. Paramount switched because they were bought out. The HD market is small enough were short term buyouts of studios makes it profitable to remain exclusive, pure and simple. Unless a format can show that it can sell discs at a rate that can make exclusive deals not as profitable, then you might see sides switch.

Blu-ray is supported by Lions Gate, Starz Entertainment (Anchor Bay), MGM, Sony, Columbia Tristar, Twentieth Century Fox, Disney Studios, Buena Vista, Touchstone, New Line Cinema, and Warners, very significant.

HD DVD is supported by BCI, Weinsteins, Dreamworks, New Line Cinema, Paramount Pictures, and Universal Pictures and Television, and Warners, also significant.

Fixed, if we are including subsidiary studios here. You take out the neutral studio of WB/New Line, and you have only the major studios it breaks down to Blu-ray having Sony, Fox, and Disney, and HD-DVD having Universal and Paramount.

I see more of these going the route that Warners has taken once they arrange to license the actual production work out, if they don't want to do it in house.

Neutrality may play out or not. Sony (MGM) will obviously not want to go to hd-dvd. Ruined will argue that Universal is firmly hd-dvd and not going neutral. Paramount has 15 months left on its contract. Fox and Disney seem satisfied at this point in time with blu-ray. After Paramount went exclusive, it brought Fox back in the game. The format war seems only more entrenched than ever. The real clincher to getting the entrenched studios to switch will be Warner going exclusive. Really Warner holds the fate of HDM in its hands.

However, time will tell if I am wrong, and I'm not so obstinate to realize that's possible. I have neither format as yet, and so I have no "dog in the fight". I do know about the marketing of previous video products, and what caused success and what caused failure, having a father who worked at RCA and Columbia during the initial home video revolution, and working there myself while in college studying the same subject. I still contend that this is significant video history being made in front of our eyes, and the ones who might be most concerned are the theater owners.

Yes, time will tell. Warner holds the key at this point. These hda2's NEED to show some sign that they have increased disc sales. If they fail to do so, then it will be a sign to Warner that perhaps hd-dvd is not the format that can win, despite giveaway players. HD-DVD has to break the 2:1 sales margin with these players.

I have both formats, and own movies with both. I have about 90 blu-rays and 34 hd-dvds, but that is mainly due to content, and choosing to buy most Warner titles on blu-ray, if they haven't been exclusive to hd-dvd. If hd-dvd wins, then I will upgrade to an hda35 and be done with it. No big deal. If blu-ray wins, my ps3 continues to serve as a premiere blu-ray player. I agree that video history is being made here. The question is whether HDM has a future on disc, or whether Microsoft wins, and they push us to compressed/lossy downloadable content, with MS controlling the distribution method for movies? I personally would like Warner to just choose a side and end this thing.