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If you were selling a technology, which would you rather be behind? The technology that might be used ( Blu Ray/PS3 ) or the tech that has no other purpose ( HDAO )?
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The technology
is being used. PS3 games are distributed on Blu-Ray media, so the drive serves a purpose beyond movie playback. Just like DVD, Blu-Ray exists in all facets of media acquisition and distribution. Unlike HD DVD, which exists solely as a movie distribution method.
With that in mind, I could not sell a technology that has no other outlet. If Blu-Ray fails as a movie distribution format, it will live on as a data storage format, a PS3 game format, and a video camera recording format (and potentially other products in the future). If HD DVD fails as a movie distribution format, it's gone forever. Toshiba has spent 2 years trying to make HD DVD recorders/burners, and they can't get them to work properly. And because Toshiba, figuratively speaking, stabbed 3 major CE companies in the back when the DVD format was finalized, they aren't getting any help to extend the format into other areas. Chinese companies can't help Toshiba with R&D, only mass production.
At this point in time, the innovation lies with Blu-Ray. To me, it's the format with the potential to knock DVD (the technology, not the movie format) on its ass. It won't happen tomorrow, or even next year, but it will happen.
HD DVD, on the other hand, is the "laserdisc" format. It's perfectly adequate for the purpose it serves, but it will never expand into other areas, as DVD did.