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I think the HD-DVD fears come mostly from people who have substantial investments in their movie collections. Replacing a DVD player with an HD-DVD player may cost $1,000-$2,000; replacing 50-100 DVD movies in a collection would cost about the same (at $20/disc). Some people already brag of collections of 300-2,000 DVDs.
The fear is that HD-DVD will represent a huge improvement over SD-DVD - even more of an improvement than DVD was over laserdisc. Quality-minded individuals will then regard standard-definition DVD as "unwatchable," jettison their collections, and start over again. Those people with 300-2,000 DVDs are now looking at spending $6,000-$40,000 to replace all their movies.
In my opinion, that's an improper mindset. People with big laserdisc collections should get the best LD player (maybe even two) they can afford, and keep using those LDs until their players die. There may even remain a small market for LD players (as has happened with vinyl), though new LD production is nearly at a standstill (as is true of vinyl). It is still quite possible to buy a new, high-end turntable/tone arm/cartridge setup today (though still at high prices - that hasn't changed).
The same could also happen with DVD. In fact, due to the technologies you mentioned (line-doubling and progressive-scan DVD playback), it should be possible to adapt SD-DVD to provide "near" HD playback on HD equipment.
My advice to those who fear HD-DVD: Don't just buy movies indiscriminately. Purchase the ones you expect to keep; rent others. If you then get spoiled by HD-DVD, you'll have a smaller collection to upgrade (if progressive scan and line-doubling aren't enough).
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Colin Dunn
DDS-006
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