We're getting close.

[Frankie]

It wasn’t that long ago that we watched the birth of these two rivals and the subsequent mud slinging and price drops. Every day someone wrote an article or posted a bit of information that shoots one down. Then next week there’s another that lifts it up.

Hats off to the HD camp for being first to market with a reasonably priced player. And hats off to folks behind BD for selling the idea that a player that costs twice as much but had more studio support, that they were the better choice.

We have a little ways to go, but I believe we’re fast approaching the final stretch in this format war. By September or October all the stops will be pulled and both of these thoroughbreds will near the “finish line” By xmas player prices be as low as they can go and alot of the big movie titles we want will be on the shelf.

We owe it all to the early adopters. These are the guys and girls that will decide which way the pendulum swings. These are the ones that will decide for all the fence sitters. Me included.

The bell rang and the gates opened a while ago.

F

[MooglePorn]

The only thing that will really end this war is Universal going dual-format.

The only thing that will make that happen is continued and even greater BD software sales leads.

Christmas will probably make that happen.

Goodbye HD DVD.

And, funny enough, I think this is more due to casual HD owners with a PS3 than true HT enthusiast early adopters, since most of them grabbed HD DVD as soon as it landed and held tightly like it was a newborn child.

[Taxi]

I agree, I think we are getting closer every week.

Personally, the "need" to get that Denon BD player seems to keep getting stronger.

I'm sure, though, that as soon as I buy into BD, then HD-DVD will do something that totally blows BRD away. (I have no idea what that could be, but there is just no way that I can back the winning team. )

[limacharliewhiskey]

I think that when this summer's movies, like Spidey 3, Pirates 3, Shrek 3, Transformers, Bourne Ultimatum, etc., come out on HD-DVD and Blu-Ray this fall and winter, we will really see the HD outcome decided. The 300 sales numbers seemed far more impressive than the Casino Royale disc, which sold less than 100k Blu-Ray discs. If 300 sold 250k discs combined, that means it was probably 160k of Blu-Ray and 80k of HD-DVD if the 2:1 Blu-Ray/HD-DVD sales ratio is correct.

[Iguana Man]

If The Dark Knight stays exclusive to HD DVD only, the war would come to a screaching halt in late 2008.

[MooglePorn]

Originally Posted by Iguana Man

If The Dark Knight stays exclusive to HD DVD only, the war would come to a screaching halt in late 2008.

Warner is dual format... Begins is just taking forever to port, probably waiting for better BD-J or whatever it is.

[Iguana Man]

Originally Posted by MooglePorn

Warner is dual format... Begins is just taking forever to port, probably waiting for better BD-J or whatever it is.

God Damn bubble burster is what you are mister!

[dugpa]

Originally Posted by Iguana Man

If The Dark Knight stays exclusive to HD DVD only, the war would come to a screaching halt in late 2008.

Naw, Batman doesn't have nearly that much power as a franchise anymore. Really, no one franchise does. But the fact that Blu-ray has more of the major franchises combined than hd-dvd does gives it the edge in the format war. There's really no major franchise exclusive to HD-DVD except maybe the Bourne movies and the Jurassic Parks, and those are lesser ones.

[bloodstainedwings]

I think what ever format "George Lucas" picks for his "Star Wars Films" will finally choose a format winner!!. If he picks both we are F*****

BSW

[Derb]

What if.. right now Mr. Lucas announced all 6 films for HD DVD & has no plans for BD?

You think that would end the format war & HD DVD would win?

[Frankie]

Hmmm.. well Derb that's a "BIG' if. But what the hell I'll play.

I can't see it changing or altering the path that this race is on at the moment.
It might be a blip on the radar but that's about it.

No doubt that they'd sell a kazillion copies but this market needs a long term game plan and I don't think a few blockbusters can swing it that much.

I think Moogle and Bill Hunt at the Bits have it right. Once Universal makes the jump the whole HD house of cards will.. well you get the idea. (No offence to the HD gang around here.)

And the link at the bits seems to indicate that they're under a lot of pressure from GE to make that switch.

They're rounding turn 2 and .....it looks like BD is in the lead by a nose.

F


F

[MooglePorn]

I think a lot of HD DVD player sales would happen if that was announced, but software sales? Nah. They'd stay the same or maybe enjoy a slight upswing...

How much it would matter in the end would depend on lots of factors, how quick they came out, how great they were, advertising, etc..

It's not going to happen anyway, and isn't Fox BD only and isn't Star Wars Fox? I wasn't under the impression that was in debate.

[Ruined]

Sales-wise, things don't look much different now than they did a few months ago, so I don't see how we are any "closer." Sony is, of course, drumming up as much PR and hype as they can in an effort to kill off HD DVD before Q4 arrives - but aside from that, HD DVD is maintaining the sales ratio.

IMO, what will really be the deciding factor is if J6P really gives a crap about HD on disc. Right now, neither format is looking all too promising in that regard. I mean, they may be interested in highdef on disc, but they may not be willing to pay significantly more than standard DVD for it.

[dugpa]

and isn't Fox BD only and isn't Star Wars Fox?

Star Wars is not owned by Fox, Lucas owns them. But he's never strayed from distribution through Fox, so I doubt he'd change now. Unless Lucas is so in love with HD-DVD that he'd insist it be released in that format, and the number of players doesn't support that idea. So Star Wars would be a blu-ray release.

[Ruined]

On second thought, it is about time for the BDA's quarterly declaration that they won the format war again...

[Taxi]

Originally Posted by Ruined

On second thought, it is about time for the BDA's quarterly declaration that they won the format war again...

Ruined, please... Give it a rest. You make it more difficult for me to keep the BRD supporters in check when you post this kind of stuff.

[Derb]

Originally Posted by dugpa

Star Wars is not owned by Fox, Lucas owns them. But he's never strayed from distribution through Fox, so I doubt he'd change now.

Off topic a bit.. I think there is a long interview/story on Lucas on the Star Wars DVD set where he claims to have taken his film(s)/idea to many big name studio's who all turned him down flat. Can't remember which studio's he went to. Anyway, I bet after the massive box office in 77 & what was to follow, those studio's who wouldn't sign on with him are still crying.

There is still some stuff from the HD DVD camp on route this fall. The new Onkyo receiver & HD DVD player. The 3 new 3rd-gen Toshiba players. I also think some PC's will come with built-in HD DVD drives. What bugs me most is that no standalone player (to my knowledge) has wireless ethernet. I thought sinse Toshiba & company are gonna press the internet features of HD DVD, they would have at least added it to their 3rd-gen line up. Makes sense for firmware updates too... Toshiba has made it easier for people to download & burn their own ISO files from their main page though..

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by Ruined

Sales-wise, things don't look much different now than they did a few months ago, so I don't see how we are any "closer." Sony is, of course, drumming up as much PR and hype as they can in an effort to kill off HD DVD before Q4 arrives - but aside from that, HD DVD is maintaining the sales ratio.

The real problem for hd-dvd is that you have said that with the sale of standalone players, hd-dvd will see the increase in sales. But despite selling a lot of hd-a2 due to promotions, they are not seeing the correlation in sales increases. It's stayed the same and in some weeks dropped despite having big titles like Bourne come out. That doesn't spell success.

IMO, what will really be the deciding factor is if J6P really gives a crap about HD on disc. Right now, neither format is looking all too promising in that regard. I mean, they may be interested in highdef on disc, but they may not be willing to pay significantly more than standard DVD for it.

They won't adopt if there are two formats to have to deal with, so despite your rhetoric that both formats can coexist, it won't matter because both will fail if one doesn't lose. Which may be what Microsoft wants as it positions itself for the ability to provide digital downloads. I really don't see MS as a friend in any of this. Despite all the evils leveled on Sony, it is Microsoft that is more than ready to see both formats fail to advance its own agenda, imo.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Taxi

Ruined, please... Give it a rest. You make it more difficult for me to keep the BRD supporters in check when you post this kind of stuff.

Give what a rest? The BDA has been engaging in dirty PR tactics since the start and there is nothing wrong with calling them on it. And, they have declared they've won the war over three times this year alone - do you really think it will be the last time they do so?

Also, here is some food for thought for those who really believe Blu-Ray is a slam dunk...
http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback204.html

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by Ruined

Give what a rest? The BDA has been engaging in dirty PR tactics since the start and there is nothing wrong with calling them on it. And, they have declared they've won the war over three times this year alone - do you really think it will be the last time they do so?

Also, here is some food for thought for those who really believe Blu-Ray is a slam dunk...
http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback204.html

Can HD DVD pull off a miracle? Difficult but not impossible, though the window of opportunity closes a bit more with each exclusive retail and content partnership that Blu-ray announces. Radical moves will be required by the HD DVD camp, such as major equipment subsidies (slice the unit price to below $200 - soon) or significant marketing investment on the part of Microsoft, Toshiba, Universal, and the other HD DVD players (something which we have yet to see happen).

What I've been arguing. The hd-dvd group has not been establishing its brand, and the window has been closing for some time. I still criticize the strategy of waiting till Christmas. It wasn't wise then, and it still continues to be a negative.

As far as the article is concerned, despite the smarmy commentary on the ps3 and its impact on the sales of bd, it seems contradictory to me that he both denies the ps3 the viability as a bd player because he cites stats that it is used to play games, but then includes it in the attach rate...a classic hd-dvd PR tactic.

And in regard to BD PR tactics, it wasn't that long ago that we were forced to endure the derisive comments about "Just wait..." and how hd-dvd was going to claim Lionsgate and Disney. But, now it's the hd-dvd group that is crying out "Just wait..." as they hope that their year-end gambit will pay off, without making hardly any investment throughout the year. I guess we'll see, but all the strategy on the hd-dvd side relies on a silent competitor...kind of like what BD has had throughout most the year. Sony et al won't give ground this Christmas season. Price points will be within range, and with the marketing engine that bd has, I wonder how hd-dvd will get the word out...not to mention that it's lost shelf space due to inactivity throughout the year.

[MooglePorn]

Originally Posted by ganthc

They won't adopt if there are two formats to have to deal with, so despite your rhetoric that both formats can coexist, it won't matter because both will fail if one doesn't lose. Which may be what Microsoft wants as it positions itself for the ability to provide digital downloads. I really don't see MS as a friend in any of this. Despite all the evils leveled on Sony, it is Microsoft that is more than ready to see both formats fail to advance its own agenda, imo.

This is more true than anyone realizes, in my opinion.

[Pirate]

Originally Posted by ganthc

And in regard to BD PR tactics, it wasn't that long ago that we were forced to endure the derisive comments about "Just wait..." and how hd-dvd was going to claim Lionsgate and Disney. But, now it's the hd-dvd group that is crying out "Just wait..." as they hope that their year-end gambit will pay off, without making hardly any investment throughout the year. I guess we'll see, but all the strategy on the hd-dvd side relies on a silent competitor...kind of like what BD has had throughout most the year. Sony et al won't give ground this Christmas season. Price points will be within range, and with the marketing engine that bd has, I wonder how hd-dvd will get the word out...not to mention that it's lost shelf space due to inactivity throughout the year.

I think Ruined was talking about the "dirty" tactics like fudging numbers and claiming victory over and over in order to confuse consumers. I credit BD with a much better marketing strategy, but I think it would be pretty hard to claim that HD DVD has played as dirty as BD.

[Derb]

Originally Posted by piratehunter

I credit BD with a much better marketing strategy, but I think it would be pretty hard to claim that HD DVD has played as dirty as BD.

If HD DVD intentionally released The Nutty Professor 2 with an SD upconvert to later re-master the title & release it as a future double-dip, I'd say that is quite a dirty tactic. Unlike The Fifth Element which at the time Sony programmers/authors were having a difficult time encoding film period on BD. Time will tell.

Most of this marketing blitz from the BD camp is online & not commercial so not every retail outlet has BD PR's pimpin' Blu-Ray unlike Microsoft who sends PR's to video game stores to pimp HD DVD.

[Pirate]

Originally Posted by Derb

If HD DVD intentionally released The Nutty Professor 2 with an SD upconvert to later re-master the title & release it as a future double-dip, I'd say that is quite a dirty tactic.

That was Universal, not HD DVD. And we're talking about marketing not AV quality.

[sub780lime]

Originally Posted by Frankie

No doubt that they'd sell a kazillion copies but this market needs a long term game plan and I don't think a few blockbusters can swing it that much.

Yeah, it didn't keep Laserdisc around.

[Frankie]

Well according to the The Bits this morning this war just got a lot longer. These ponies are now walking to the finish line.

F