Toshiba HD-A2 $98.87 at Wal-Mart this FRIDAY ONLY

[Mr. Furious]

Originally Posted by ganthc

The important thing will be whether we see the requisite increase in software sales. We need to see hd-dvd consistently above the 40% and with that many players above the 45% mark. If we don't, then it reinforces the "content is king" argument.

But no doubt this is a great success for Toshiba. Getting more players out there should increase sales. We'll see how it plays out in the software sales in the upcoming weeks.

That's a fair comment. If there isn't anything to buy on HD DVD, then it'll be hard pressed to increase its sales numbers. I found myself a hair frustrated at all the BD sales this past weekend, but found very little on HD DVD worth buying.

[Pirate]

Wow. That's a lot of new owners.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

found very little on HD DVD worth buying.

I hope you mean on sale, cause you got a lot of catching up to do!

[Mr. Furious]

No, I mean on the sales racks. Best buy is a pretty terrible place to buy movies in general (they're typically one of the highest priced places to shop). Target and WalMart both had horrible selections of movies for HD DVD. Amazon & DVD Empire seem like the best place to shop right now...

[rixrex]

That will change. The stockhound execs at Walmart are not going to see lots of HD DVD players sell, and then forget to up the stock of HD DVDs. Same with any other retailer with some sense.

Software will follow the hardware, and retailers will follow that too, just as it did when VHS machine sales surpassed Beta. Exclusivity deals will go south should either format get a significant upper hand, and when that happens it will be due to market forces that are a result of sales numbers and profit potential.

You are watching video history in the making again, and you just might be seeing a watershed event right now, so pay attention so you can tell your kids about it, or a 'message board' 20 yrs from now.

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by rixrex

That will change. The stockhound execs at Walmart are not going to see lots of HD DVD players sell, and then forget to up the stock of HD DVDs. Same with any other retailer with some sense.

Software will follow the hardware, and retailers will follow that too, just as it did when VHS machine sales surpassed Beta. Exclusivity deals will go south should either format get a significant upper hand, and when that happens it will be due to market forces that are a result of sales numbers and profit potential.

You are watching video history in the making again, and you just might be seeing a watershed event right now, so pay attention so you can tell your kids about it, or a 'message board' 20 yrs from now.

Yes, but consumers that are only willing to buy hd-a2's at the $99 rate at Walmart, aren't going to spend $30 on a combo disc or Paramount title. They probably won't even spend $20 on a catalog title. Think about it...Bourne Ultimatum, Transformers, Shrek 3, and Evan Almighty cost more than the player did.

Also, while your process of having studios switch seems to be fast, the main way for that switch to occur is for sales of hd-dvd to increase. If all these players are bought up and there is no correlating increase in hd-dvd disc sales, then the studios can continue to hold out because they may feel that hd-dvd owners are made up of people that are not willing to spend money for their movies on high def.

Like I said, with this many players now in the market, hd-dvd sales starting next week should start to be in the 45% range or higher. If they aren't, then I will continue to maintain that "content is king" and as long as the content providers (Fox, Disney, and Sony) hold on to blu-ray, the sales will continue to reflect the 2:1 split towards blu. The hd-a2's NEED to pay off for hd-dvd to be viable long term. Otherwise, I think that this firesale of players was a wash.

EDIT: I might add that Warner will also be noticing whether the 2:1 lean towards blu starts balancing out as well.

[elfman]

Originally Posted by ganthc

Think about it...Bourne Ultimatum, Transformers, Shrek 3, and Evan Almighty cost more than the player did.

Yes, but using that argument, Transformers (DVD) and Even Almighty (DVD) together cost more than the cheapest DVD players too, so I don't see that as a serious detriment.

I agree that prices for HD need to at least be within 20% of the same title on DVD. That might be the sweet spot, pricing-wise.

[sub780lime]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

No, I mean on the sales racks. Best buy is a pretty terrible place to buy movies in general (they're typically one of the highest priced places to shop). Target and WalMart both had horrible selections of movies for HD DVD. Amazon & DVD Empire seem like the best place to shop right now...

Well I don't know if you have Fry's out there but they have some of the best prices and they have a much larger selection that Bestbuy or Circuit City. Thats where I get most of my discs.

[rixrex]

Originally Posted by ganthc

Yes, but consumers that are only willing to buy hd-a2's at the $99 rate at Walmart, aren't going to spend $30 on a combo disc or Paramount title. They probably won't even spend $20 on a catalog title. Think about it...Bourne Ultimatum, Transformers, Shrek 3, and Evan Almighty cost more than the player did.

Also, while your process of having studios switch seems to be fast, the main way for that switch to occur is for sales of hd-dvd to increase. If all these players are bought up and there is no correlating increase in hd-dvd disc sales, then the studios can continue to hold out because they may feel that hd-dvd owners are made up of people that are not willing to spend money for their movies on high def.

Like I said, with this many players now in the market, hd-dvd sales starting next week should start to be in the 45% range or higher. If they aren't, then I will continue to maintain that "content is king" and as long as the content providers (Fox, Disney, and Sony) hold on to blu-ray, the sales will continue to reflect the 2:1 split towards blu. The hd-a2's NEED to pay off for hd-dvd to be viable long term. Otherwise, I think that this firesale of players was a wash.

EDIT: I might add that Warner will also be noticing whether the 2:1 lean towards blu starts balancing out as well.

I respectfully disagree.

First of all, the software prices will eventually fall, and the consumer who isn't going to spend bucks for the software immediately will rent, just as what happened with the initially expensive videotapes, and will still sometimes buy standard DVDs which won't be exclusive. The consumer doing the buying of players and the renting that will push the market isn't like some of us who collect regardless of price.

The sales of HD DVDs will also increase as software prices come down, which will happen. The production of the HD software and discs is not really any more expensive than standard discs once the initial outlay and mastering is done. Exclusivity agreements will fall aside, and I didn't say immediately, but they will when there's profit to be made in either format, and when the major studios can just license the productions out to qualified disc manufacturing firms. The profit potential will come from realizing there's a market still to be tapped of consumers who have the units to play the product. I don't see any software lead at the current moment as significant yet.

Blu-ray is supported by Lions Gate, MGM (Sony), Twentieth Century Fox, Disney Studios, and Warners, very significant.

HD DVD is supported by BCI, Dreamworks, New Line Cinema, Paramount Pictures, and Universal Pictures and Television, and Warners, also significant.

I see more of these going the route that Warners has taken once they arrange to license the actual production work out, if they don't want to do it in house.

However, time will tell if I am wrong, and I'm not so obstinate to realize that's possible. I have neither format as yet, and so I have no "dog in the fight". I do know about the marketing of previous video products, and what caused success and what caused failure, having a father who worked at RCA and Columbia during the initial home video revolution, and working there myself while in college studying the same subject. I still contend that this is significant video history being made in front of our eyes, and the ones who might be most concerned are the theater owners.

[Derb]

Well now that them folks got an A2, they better run (don't walk) to the nearest Best Buy & get a new HDTV + Receiver + speakers. $5000US profit from the $100 A2, now that would make video history!

[pizza]

Originally Posted by ganthc

Yes, but consumers that are only willing to buy hd-a2's at the $99 rate at Walmart, aren't going to spend $30 on a combo disc or Paramount title. They probably won't even spend $20 on a catalog title. Think about it...Bourne Ultimatum, Transformers, Shrek 3, and Evan Almighty cost more than the player did.

Also, while your process of having studios switch seems to be fast, the main way for that switch to occur is for sales of hd-dvd to increase. If all these players are bought up and there is no correlating increase in hd-dvd disc sales, then the studios can continue to hold out because they may feel that hd-dvd owners are made up of people that are not willing to spend money for their movies on high def.

Well, if those studios feel that the majority of the public is too cheap to buy $30 discs, then they can pull the plug on HD and BR right now because it's never going to go totally mainstream at those prices. I used to buy LDs for $40 a pop and I find it difficult to pay that much for a disc now. If they're happy to keep it to an elite few (such as LDs) then that's fine. But if they really want to have the general public give it a big warm, fuzzy hug, then the discs prices have to come down. Meanwhile, after buying my $99 player, I immediately bought the $99 Heroes set as well as two other titles. (But I did use coupons and trade-ins. )

[rixrex]

Originally Posted by Derb

Well now that them folks got an A2, they better run (don't walk) to the nearest Best Buy & get a new HDTV + Receiver + speakers. $5000US profit from the $100 A2, now that would make video history!

Are you poking fun at trailer court residents, country folks and hillbillies? You know, 'them folks' are all related so be watchful.

Many of those folks already have HD sets and just never used the HD yet.

I doubt if any set manufacturers will be making a $5,000 profit, considering how competitive that industry is. They might make a 10% profit. If you know of one making a $5,000 profit, tell us so we can buy stock in that company.

The real profit being made will be the banks and credit companies who'll be charging those gotta-buy-it-right-now-on-charge consumers usury interest rates.

[rixrex]

Originally Posted by pizza

Well, if those studios feel that the majority of the public is too cheap to buy $30 discs, then they can pull the plug on HD and BR right now because it's never going to go totally mainstream at those prices. I used to buy LDs for $40 a pop and I find it difficult to pay that much for a disc now. If they're happy to keep it to an elite few (such as LDs) then that's fine. But if they really want to have the general public give it a big warm, fuzzy hug, then the discs prices have to come down. Meanwhile, after buying my $99 player, I immediately bought the $99 Heroes set as well as two other titles. (But I did use coupons and trade-ins. )

The discs will get cheaper. Initial DVDs went for $24.99, and such.

I remember when tapes sold for $50 to $100, and the rental store made you sign a credit card form to rent them in case you lost one.

You bought LDs at $40 and that was the lesser priced LDs. They often went for much more, even over $100, depending upon the product, except in Japan where they were cheap enough to cause a rather large segment of the population to buy them.

The cost of manufacturing isn't always related to the eventual selling price. The cost of manufacturing HD and BD discs is not going to be any more than the cost of standard DVDs once things get rolling.

It's going to happen and there will be no turning back on hi-def product. The only things of uncertainty are:

Which format will eventually dominate, and when?

Will movie theaters begin to lose significant numbers of customers?

When will a major studio release bypass the theater route and go right to HD discs, and who will do it?

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by rixrex

First of all, the software prices will eventually fall, and the consumer who isn't going to spend bucks for the software immediately will rent, just as what happened with the initially expensive videotapes, and will still sometimes buy standard DVDs which won't be exclusive. The consumer doing the buying of players and the renting that will push the market isn't like some of us who collect regardless of price.

No one is saying they won't, and I certainly think they will drop on both sides. But until that happens, I don't think you will see the meteoric rise in sales for hd-dvd that coincides with the number of players that were sold...not at the current rate of prices for software. Granted, I am assuming that the people purchasing the hda2's are bargain shoppers only. They will buy hd-dvds at $15-17 range. But most retailers are starting at $25, and that's for catalog. My argument is that your progression on hd-dvd dominance seems to hinge on a quick turnaround of sales because of cheap players. But it still comes down to the price of the discs, and the types of movies being offered...and whether those are the ones that people want.

The sales of HD DVDs will also increase as software prices come down, which will happen. The production of the HD software and discs is not really any more expensive than standard discs once the initial outlay and mastering is done. Exclusivity agreements will fall aside, and I didn't say immediately, but they will when there's profit to be made in either format, and when the major studios can just license the productions out to qualified disc manufacturing firms. The profit potential will come from realizing there's a market still to be tapped of consumers who have the units to play the product. I don't see any software lead at the current moment as significant yet.

There is currently profit to be made on either side currently. Universal could make a lot of money if they went neutral. Paramount was neutral before. Warner has the top selling HD movie on highdef by being neutral. I don't think the argument of missed profits is being ignored or not realized. Singling out Fox, Disney, Lionsgate, Sony, and MGM for switching sides seems to be a bit biased. Paramount switched because they were bought out. The HD market is small enough were short term buyouts of studios makes it profitable to remain exclusive, pure and simple. Unless a format can show that it can sell discs at a rate that can make exclusive deals not as profitable, then you might see sides switch.

Blu-ray is supported by Lions Gate, Starz Entertainment (Anchor Bay), MGM, Sony, Columbia Tristar, Twentieth Century Fox, Disney Studios, Buena Vista, Touchstone, New Line Cinema, and Warners, very significant.

HD DVD is supported by BCI, Weinsteins, Dreamworks, New Line Cinema, Paramount Pictures, and Universal Pictures and Television, and Warners, also significant.

Fixed, if we are including subsidiary studios here. You take out the neutral studio of WB/New Line, and you have only the major studios it breaks down to Blu-ray having Sony, Fox, and Disney, and HD-DVD having Universal and Paramount.

I see more of these going the route that Warners has taken once they arrange to license the actual production work out, if they don't want to do it in house.

Neutrality may play out or not. Sony (MGM) will obviously not want to go to hd-dvd. Ruined will argue that Universal is firmly hd-dvd and not going neutral. Paramount has 15 months left on its contract. Fox and Disney seem satisfied at this point in time with blu-ray. After Paramount went exclusive, it brought Fox back in the game. The format war seems only more entrenched than ever. The real clincher to getting the entrenched studios to switch will be Warner going exclusive. Really Warner holds the fate of HDM in its hands.

However, time will tell if I am wrong, and I'm not so obstinate to realize that's possible. I have neither format as yet, and so I have no "dog in the fight". I do know about the marketing of previous video products, and what caused success and what caused failure, having a father who worked at RCA and Columbia during the initial home video revolution, and working there myself while in college studying the same subject. I still contend that this is significant video history being made in front of our eyes, and the ones who might be most concerned are the theater owners.

Yes, time will tell. Warner holds the key at this point. These hda2's NEED to show some sign that they have increased disc sales. If they fail to do so, then it will be a sign to Warner that perhaps hd-dvd is not the format that can win, despite giveaway players. HD-DVD has to break the 2:1 sales margin with these players.

I have both formats, and own movies with both. I have about 90 blu-rays and 34 hd-dvds, but that is mainly due to content, and choosing to buy most Warner titles on blu-ray, if they haven't been exclusive to hd-dvd. If hd-dvd wins, then I will upgrade to an hda35 and be done with it. No big deal. If blu-ray wins, my ps3 continues to serve as a premiere blu-ray player. I agree that video history is being made here. The question is whether HDM has a future on disc, or whether Microsoft wins, and they push us to compressed/lossy downloadable content, with MS controlling the distribution method for movies? I personally would like Warner to just choose a side and end this thing.

[Mr. Furious]

They appear to have made a difference this week/month so far for DVD Empire.

Their count (as of 11/8/07):

Originally Posted by DVDEmpire.com

This week: HD-DVD - 52.21%, Blu-Ray - 47.79%

However, if you look at the history of this year, HD-DVD's sales have been quite anemic. I attribute that to being mostly a result of catalog title sales. HD DVD needs some new blockbusters released on the format to really spur sales. Honestly, I see BluRay having the edge there. If HDDVD doesn't capitalize on the momentum it's gotten in the past week it'll be in jeopardy.

Sony has done a good job of weathering the HDDVD storm. Their sales are still quite strong (relatively speaking). They’ve managed to have some good sales in opposition of Toshiba. This kept their numbers up despite all these new owners. I contend that HDDVD has to become far more aggressive at capturing retail space for their software. They’ve got the players in target zone, it’s time to get the software and software pricing there as well.

I believe that HDDVD could mortally strike BluRay IF Toshiba can put the hammer down this Christmas. If it fails to make the deals and move the software, then I think we’re looking at a protracted battle and possible consumer frustration with HDM that could wound it severely.

[rixrex]

Originally Posted by ganthc

I personally would like Warner to just choose a side and end this thing.

That's not going to happen, IMO, until and unless there's a big bump one way or the other. The bump will come from consumers (excluding payola here) and the machines they purchase, and what's in the home for them to use. You think I see it as an immediate event and I don't, and I said previously that I don't. Just because I describe it in a few paragraphs doesn't mean I think it will happen in the same time it takes me to write this.

Market forces usually prevail, and market forces in the home video market are not only what hardware people are buying currently according to what they can afford, but also what do they plan to use in their home. Will people be as you are and buy both? I have doubts about that, and I see the low-budget folks sticking with their HD players, renting HD discs and buying affordable ones, and still buying standard DVDs of the non-HD titles. This will not go unnoticed by any film production company, either large or small.

Film houses and studios do not need to produce their own software of their titles. They consistently license it out. I personally saw this going on with VHS tapes in 1980-81, factory produced tapes were actually outsourced and being manufactured by VHS tape mills, not by the studio, under specific quality control guides, because that was when VHS vcrs in the US home outnumbered Beta, and the home market was there for the product. That can happen with either BD or HD discs.

If I owned and operated one of these type of mills for the production of either discs, I would certainly be pushing the exclusive studios to open up to my production facility and let me pay them percentages to let me make and market their product in the other HD format. Some could eventually cave in and do this, as it's just extra gravy added to what they have already. Plus it puts them in a good spot should either format falter. Small film houses will do this for sure pretty quickly by comparison

It's just my opinions based upon personal experience from work and study, of both the Beta-VHS battle, why VHS became dominant in the US and Beta in Asia (for a long time), and the advent of both CED and LD, and why one failed, and the other stayed as a niche product in the US and yet was a mainstream product in Japan. I certainly realize that there could be something that happens I left out of my consideration that changes everything.

[ganthc]

Thanks for sharing your experiences. All of that was good to know.

I think that it doesn't necessarily take a massive bump for Warner to choose sides. Keep in mind that whoever gets Warner's exclusivity will be offering a deal larger than Paramount to get it. It will just depend on which side Warner sees as the future for HDM. Ruined would say that he thinks cheap standalone players will be appealing to consumers and thus choosing hd-dvd will be more profitable. Sony is betting on the ps3 and maintaining a 2:1 sales margin victory over their rival to entice the studio. Either way, if after this Christmas season and into Q1 of 2008, Warner doesn't see a momentum shift for hd-dvd, then they will have their answer. If they do see a narrowing or even a lead, then hd-dvd will be smart choice. They would know that bd only consumers could pick up a cheap hd-a3 to watch their content if they went exclusive. That might even be the deciding factor should they go that direction.

The real clincher would be a cheap dual format player. But barring such a player being out there, I agree with you that most consumers won't want to go dual format. And that could push it into that niche format. I will say this though...hd players being at the $100 price level will push the format forward. LD never could get their players' prices down to get mass acceptance. If bd doesn't get cheaper players out there, and cheap players for hd-dvd shows sales increases, then it could be a HUGE factor right there.

[rixrex]

Your scenario is quicker than mine, which you thought was too quick.

Warners will not make a decision to go one way or the other with that scenario that quickly. They'll stick it out as is because they are all setup to do both already. The initial setup is the expense, the manufacturing afterward is not. The manufacturing of hi-def discs is not much more than standard DVDs, I'm talking about maybe pennies per disc at most. If they're ready to do both, they'll do both and keep the wait and see attitude.

There's also a possibility that both can exist side-by-side should technology move forward on dual-players and make them inexpensive, but I see that as a bit of a stretch.

[jbat31]

i have the a2 hooked up to my audio receiver iwth optical cable and while watching dvd's the display window on the player has 2 ch highlighted but not multi. I have output set to bitstream. Is that right? Am i getting 5.1

[rixrex]

Doesn't sound exactly right, unless the player always shows 2 channel regardless. What does your manual state about this display, if anything at all?

Might try re-posting this as a separate, unique thread of its own and then you'd get more response I think.

[ganthc]

http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/news/...Milestone/1156

We see here that Toshiba has sold 420,000 hd-dvd players, and is hoping to have 500,000 by the end of November. But in June, they made the bold prediction that they would sell 1 million players (down from 1.8 million before that).

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...rojections/693

So can Toshiba sell 500,000 players in December?

[tomdkat]

Originally Posted by ganthc

So can Toshiba sell 500,000 players in December?

I'm betting probably not but I'm sure they will sell a bunch more this month and they will sell a bunch in December. I can't assign a number to each context of "bunch" but I think 500,000 players will be sold by December, at least and maybe by the end of the year 750,000 would be sold. Of course, I'm guessing.

Peace...

[Dogg]

Originally Posted by jbat31

i have the a2 hooked up to my audio receiver iwth optical cable and while watching dvd's the display window on the player has 2 ch highlighted but not multi. I have output set to bitstream. Is that right? Am i getting 5.1

Your receiver should also have an indication of the type of input it is receiving. At least the three I've had in the last 10 years have.