DVD Forum's secretive "Phoenix Plan" begins to take shape as rival to Blu-ray

[Ruined]

There is a ton of info newly added to the official DVD Forum website that indicates another format war is brewing. It appears the code name for the new DVD Forum attempt to rival Blu-ray is the "Phoenix Plan," and the official launch date for the plan began on the date that Toshiba called it quits on HD DVD. Documents proving these statements can be found on the website here, apparently the DVD Forum has re-released the specs for DVD and deemed the new revision "Phoenix Plan":

But I am not sure this plan necessarily involves packaged media! From what it looks like it appears Toshiba & the DVD Forum are going to leverage their upcoming upconverting standalones coming out this fall as not only upconverting DVDs but also being download stations as well as docking stations. Just like Toshiba made licensing fees off of the DVD format, the goal here might be to create a worldwide standard for non-traditional media and make money off the licensing fees for both hardware reference design and software licensing off of that - while at the same time still making money off the original DVD.

To further understand this better, I will outline what I have gathered from the specs combined with some speculation from the links in this thread:

1. The new "format" is now called DVD / HD Video Player in the official DVD specs or DVD/HD for short. The official HD DVD specs have also been updated as of June 2008 to reflect this. The newly updated DVD Forum books for DVD spec are called "Phoenix Plan." It will have both traditional and non-traditional aspects.

2. The traditional (i.e. disc-based) aspect will be 3X DVD. This is a standard dual layer DVD-9 disc with HD video encode on it. Yes, we are essentially talking red laser HD DVD. Note that this does not necessarily entail new packaged media, though it could in the future as any DVD machine could press these discs. The format may simply be used as a recordable format for physical backup of online-purchased media; or, another usage could be for physical purchase (DVD-R) of media rented from blockbuster on USB stick. Also, it will be possible obviously to have combo discs with 3X DVD on one side and standard DVD on the other.

3. The non-traditional aspect will come both via internet and USB stick. Blockbuster is quoted in July 2008 Video Business as reducing physical DVD stock by soon launching an in-store kiosks rental service that wil allow rentals via a "dockable device" such as a USB stick they will sell. Again, think red laser HD DVD player... Remember the two USB ports that were never used? Yep, this is how they could be used in the "Phoenix Plan." Take the movie home on your USB stick, watch it on one of the millions of devices that can play it... Like it? Buy it by burning a copy to DVD-R in 3X DVD format. Then erase your USB stick and go back to Blockbuster for your next movie! Of course, you could also buy copies of movies rented via online services by burning them in a similar fashion in the same 3X DVD format. The DVD Forum appears open to share this aspect of the format with the BDA for additon to Blu-ray Disc players. In addition, the hardware/software reference design could be sold to a company like Blockbuster to manufacture their own DVD/HD player for their kiosk rentals to better compete with the "Netflix box."

4. All XBOX 360 consoles, HD DVD standalones, modern PCs, and the upcoming DVD/HD video players should be able to playback both the traditional and non-traditional formats since no special optical drive is required for the traditional media and no optical drive at all is required for non-traditional media. That gives DVD/HD a massive instant userbase ready to be tapped from the day it launches that surpasses Blu=ray's by the tens of millions. All you need to buy to use DVD/HD is an 8GB USB drive and/or internet connection if you don't already own one, plus a device with the power needed to decode a 8GB HD video stream.

5. Again, the new standalone players for this format will basically be an updated, faster, and better upconverting-quality HD DVD player with a standard red-laser DVD drive. They will use a much cheaper, more conservative version of the Cell CPU found in Playstation 3 and now manufactured exclusively by Toshiba. However, much effort has been put into making the format compatible with aforementioned existing players, not just new standalone players. So this is not a format that will start with 0 players in the wild, but rather a mountain of players found in XBOX 360s, modern PCs & laptops, HD DVD standalones, and of course the new DVD/HD players.

All-in-all, this fall should be very interesting. While Blu-ray may go unrivaled in terms of packaged media, it appears in terms of players Toshiba will be attempting to create a new format that makes current DVD packaged media look HD-quality while creating a bridge to non-traditional media delivered via online & USB stick. Whether it fails or not will depend on whether market forces unite behind this new format; after all, it may deliver a non-traditional format that is sorely needed in this day & age in the face of HD Divx torrents abound. I guess this could be considered "scorched earth" tactics, but not unexpected given the amount of money Toshiba makes off DVD.

Note that this could all turn out to be a bunch of crap as it is informed speculation. And, even if correct it could fail miserably. But based on the money some are investing in Blu-ray I think its worth talking about!

Links used for this summary/speculation:
DVD FLLC - DVD Format Book
http://www.dvdfllc.co.jp/pdf/pposhtw.pdf
http://www.dvdfllc.co.jp/pdf/HDDVD-V..._Guide_V12.pdf
DVD FLLC - DVD Format Book
First 3X DVD-ROM Disc Cut with DCA Equipment
Is "3X DVD" HD DVD's secret weapon against Blu-ray? - Engadget
X-bit labs - DVD Forum’s Work Group 12 Set to Communicate with Blu-Ray Disc Association.
AVS Forum - View Single Post - DVD Forum Adds DVD/HD Video Player as New Product Category

[videoworx]

That gives DVD/HD a massive instant userbase ready to be tapped from the day it launches that surpasses Blu=ray's by the tens of millions.

Don't start this again...the most popular BD player in the world is the PS3, which has USB ports, and wireless access to practically any media server. Thus, most Blu-Ray player owners will have access to more (and better quality) media than this fabled DVD/HD whizzbang device.

Downloadable content won't approach BD bitrates for many years. Regardless of codec, the image and sound quality cannot possibly compete with anything found on a BD. Might not matter to some, but it does to people who hang out in home theatre forums.

If this fantastic format is real, it has epic fail written all over it. Horrible backwards compatibility with current DVD players (something Ruined despises about Blu-Ray), and a non-proven commerical delivery platform. I wouldn't expect anything different from Toshiba.

[Sehnzeleid]

Blu-ray is at 2.0, who cares what Toshiba does at this point?

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by videoworx

Don't start this again...the most popular BD player in the world is the PS3, which has USB ports, and wireless access to practically any media server. Thus, most Blu-Ray player owners will have access to more (and better quality) media than this fabled DVD/HD whizzbang device.

Blu-ray will have better quality, but if Toshiba goes ahead with this plan they have a far larger potential userbase than Blu-ray. Even if you add up all the PS3s in the world the number is dwarfed compared to PCs+laptops sold in the past 3 years plus XBOX 360s & HD DVD players & whatever future box this generates on top of that.

Downloadable content won't approach BD bitrates for many years. Regardless of codec, the image and sound quality cannot possibly compete with anything found on a BD. Might not matter to some, but it does to people who hang out in home theatre forums.

Again, this new DVD/HD format does not appear to attempt to rival Blu-ray in terms of packaged media, but is instead a bridge to non-packaged media. I think that the sound and video in an 8GB encode can compete with Blu-ray; it won't be as good, but it will most definitely be able to compete. Heck, if you look at the AVSFORUM effective resolution test a massive amount of Blu-ray Discs don't offer more than effective 720p resolution.

Still, I think you'd have two different markets which is why it appears Toshiba is open to having this tech on BD players.

If this fantastic format is real, it has epic fail written all over it. Horrible backwards compatibility with current DVD players (something Ruined despises about Blu-Ray), and a non-proven commerical delivery platform. I wouldn't expect anything different from Toshiba.

Again, it depends on market forces. If Blockbuster gets behind it then it could be a credible threat to the business of packaged media, similar to how iPod was with the CD market. It could be as simple as Toshiba offering Blockbuster a good deal on competition to the upcoming Netflix boxes. If Toshiba just makes the tech available and no one uses it, then obviously it will fail; BD has done pretty weak since the format war ended for these reasons among others. Also, technically there should be no barrier to backwards compatibility with standard DVD players if 3X DVD packaged media is used.

Someone just needs to make the right box to make video downloads more accessible for people... Perhaps this is what Toshiba is aiming for here.

Originally Posted by Sehnzeleid

Blu-ray is at 2.0, who cares what Toshiba does at this point?

With gas prices the way they are + the economy + the fact that the most bare-bones stripped down noname BD player is still $300 + the high price of BD blanks, Toshiba could still pose a threat to Blu-ray if they were able to deliver cheaper HD to the still-untapped public masses. Most likely they will fail, but in this type of scenario who knows? I guess I don't feel that it is safe until that market is addressed.

[videoworx]

I think that the sound and video in an 8GB encode

Cheap flash drives have serious issues playing back very large video files. Give it a try. Distribution on optical media is far more dependable. Besides, I suspect these downloadable encodes won't be larger than 2 or 3 gigs.

[plissken99]

Originally Posted by videoworx

Don't start this again...the most popular BD player in the world is the PS3, which has USB ports, and wireless access to practically any media server. Thus, most Blu-Ray player owners will have access to more (and better quality) media than this fabled DVD/HD whizzbang device.

Downloadable content won't approach BD bitrates for many years. Regardless of codec, the image and sound quality cannot possibly compete with anything found on a BD. Might not matter to some, but it does to people who hang out in home theatre forums.

If this fantastic format is real, it has epic fail written all over it. Horrible backwards compatibility with current DVD players (something Ruined despises about Blu-Ray), and a non-proven commerical delivery platform. I wouldn't expect anything different from Toshiba.

What he said...

FUCK Toshiba, fuck them in their dead asses with a big rubber dick, then break it off and beat them with the rest of it.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by plissken99

What he said...

FUCK Toshiba, fuck them in their dead asses with a big rubber dick, then break it off and beat them with the rest of it.

Bwahahaha, yes they are becoming a nuisance now. I don't want my $600 Pioneer Blu-ray player to be a doorstop 3 years from now. But, that is to be expected. They will do anything to protect their DVD royalties, because they are not in the BDA nor are they in the position to barter a large slice of the pie. Even if it means scorched earth policy, I'm sure Toshiba will do whatever they can to slow BD adoption. Microsoft will probably support them, too, if MS follows their traditional pattern of "protect Windows OS dominance!"

[Ruined]

More fuel for the fire. DVD Forum approves new "DVD Download" logo in June 2008 session:

DVD Download DL logo sparks wonder over Toshiba's super-resolution DVD player - Engadget

Imagery to further support the DVD9 download argument made above.

[videoworx]

That logo has existed for well over a year:
Steering Committee Letter Voting
(click on the link for point #3)

Since "-R DL" media is not reliable (unlike +R DL), I can't imagine this succeeding. It's the same problem Toshiba had with recordable HD-DVD media. Without industry support (very few, if any, media manufacturers produce "-DL" discs anymore) this will go nowhere. It's a shame Toshiba was so stubborn about +R. Oh well.


Dear Toshiba,

Let it die.

Signed,

The universe.

[chlngr1970]

So, before everyone condems the product before it is even released, lets see how it performs. I don't know if I buy into it, but if it is true...and is an affordable alternative to Blu Ray...lets see what happens.

j

[Ruined]

Also one must realize even if DVD/HD fails, Toshiba has the upcoming dHvDd, 3D DVD, and of course HiDeffyD formats to fall back on!

[tvine2000]

Originally Posted by plissken99

What he said...

FUCK Toshiba, fuck them in their dead asses with a big rubber dick, then break it off and beat them with the rest of it.

[tvine2000]

Originally Posted by videoworx

That logo has existed for well over a year:
Steering Committee Letter Voting
(click on the link for point #3)

Since "-R DL" media is not reliable (unlike +R DL), I can't imagine this succeeding. It's the same problem Toshiba had with recordable HD-DVD media. Without industry support (very few, if any, media manufacturers produce "-DL" discs anymore) this will go nowhere. It's a shame Toshiba was so stubborn about +R. Oh well.


Dear Toshiba,

Let it die.

Signed,

The universe.

funny i thought the long term plan was the studio's want to get rid of dvd,i hope its still the ''plan''

[Sehnzeleid]

Originally Posted by Ruined

I don't want my $600 Pioneer Blu-ray player to be a doorstop 3 years from now. But, that is to be expected.

What the heck are you talking about? Yours and my HD DVD player(s) are doorsteps now. And If your BD player last another 3 years because of some vague plan DVD is concocting the BD format still would have lasted much longer than HD DVD ever did. Also I doubt you would have ever said the same thing about your HD DVD player while that format was still alive.

Why fixate so much on things that "could" happen. That just doesn't make sense since anything "could" happen. Anyone of us could be creamed by a bus tomorrow. So I don't see the point in not enjoying what we have today. Blu-ray plainly has vastly more potential in delivering the kick ass than anything you describe above. Why spread FUD over something inferior? And why not defend a superior cause like Blu-ray?

Though what happens if your right and DVD or shitty HD downloads somehow kill Blu-ray, wouldn't that royally suck? And all you could say then is that you were right, but that's little comfort.

I say:

[umainebearman]

Originally Posted by Sehnzeleid

What the heck are you talking about? Yours and my HD DVD player(s) are doorsteps now.

So your HD-DVD player just absolutely won't play your HD-DVDs anymore?? Wow! Well just send the player and the disks to me and I'll get rid of them for you.

[dugpa]

Originally Posted by Sehnzeleid

What the heck are you talking about? Yours and my HD DVD player(s) are doorsteps now.

It drives me nuts when people say this, as if earlier this year my hd-dvd player suddenly exploded or something and no longer plays discs. For being a "doorstop" I sure have been enjoying watching the first season of Star Trek, The Pianist, Heroes S1, Pride & Prejudice, The Adventures of Robin Hood, Forbidden Planet, Scent of a Woman, The Big Lebowski, Breach, Lost in Translation, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and a host of other titles that somehow still play just fine, and don't exist in blu-ray yet. Nope, I regret nothing about being format agnostic.

As for Toshiba, talk about sour grapes. If they were smart they'd release a blu-ray player so they can at least get some revenue coming in on the current technology. Yeah, downloads will take off eventually, and sadly I don't think even the lower quality will hurt it. Lower quality downloads rule the music market over cds now, and people put up with crappy compression on cable already. But Toshiba is foolish for trying to go it alone and force another format on their own down people's throats. Yeah, I know the HD-DVD Forum is involved, but lately it seems like most of the other companies have decided they're irrelivant to the future.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Sehnzeleid

What the heck are you talking about? Yours and my HD DVD player(s) are doorsteps now. And If your BD player last another 3 years because of some vague plan DVD is concocting the BD format still would have lasted much longer than HD DVD ever did. Also I doubt you would have ever said the same thing about your HD DVD player while that format was still alive.

Why fixate so much on things that "could" happen. That just doesn't make sense since anything "could" happen. Anyone of us could be creamed by a bus tomorrow. So I don't see the point in not enjoying what we have today. Blu-ray plainly has vastly more potential in delivering the kick ass than anything you describe above. Why spread FUD over something inferior? And why not defend a superior cause like Blu-ray?

Yeah, I guess fear of BD dying that's not really it. I mean, any excessive media I buy I know I'll be able to eBay with little loss just like I did when HD DVD died. Plus players still play the discs anyway. Although I still don't understand how J6P is going to give up his $5 DVDs anytime soon.

One problem with early format death is that the player technology gets frozen in time. I wasn't satisfied with the HD-XA2 being the best it gets for HD DVD. While the A/V quality was most definitely more than enough and still a lot better than most $500-$800 Blu-ray players, the speed of the player was not what I'd want to permanently use. The doorstop comment was in jest, but really part of the reason I dumped most of my HD DVDs is because I know there would be BD players in the future I'd much rather use than the best standalone HD DVD had to offer before its death. Hopefully before anything threatens BD we will get some really fast and high quality standalones. I have high hopes for the BDP-51FD.

Though what happens if your right and DVD or shitty HD downloads somehow kill Blu-ray, wouldn't that royally suck? And all you could say then is that you were right, but that's little comfort.

It would suck, but I would like to have the option of both. While I don't want HD downloads to kill Blu-ray, I want a more mainstream HD download option so that I can rent in the comfort of my own home. I think there is something cool about being able to rent a movie with the click of a button, even if I don't use it all that often. We just need the interface to do it; vudu looks close to what I want, but they seem to be doing poorly in making content deals. Can't have a great rental download service without all the latest and greatest movies + catalogs.


Most of all, I think talking about new potential technologies like this is fun. I really enjoyed the format war and debates within, so picking up on some of the potential new stuff makes things a bit more exciting again

[Astrakan]

Originally Posted by Sehnzeleid

Why spread FUD over something inferior?

Enough with the FUD stuff already. This is an AV enthusiast forum. This thread has AV news. Why shouldn't it be posted? And if the concern is over Ruined's speculations/analysis/whatever, what's the big deal?

As long as information is posted along with original links, I couldn't care less how the poster chooses to word his own thoughts on the topic.

KM

[Derb]

I need a tv with 4000p rez before I give a crap about any other format.

[Ruined]

3D actually would be a nice trump card given the availability of 120hz TVs.

[Mikado]

Soldier on.

[ganthc]

Just like with hd-dvd, I don't see a lot of partners on this venture. I think there should be some push to remove the Board of Directors at Toshiba, because they are obviously not going with their shareholders' best interests. Technology is not standing still. At least with hd-dvd, they were showing progress towards high definition. With their current model, they are saying high definition is not the future, which I think is ridiculous.

I guess we'll see what product Toshiba finally decides to put out there.

[Mikado]

You ever see one of those movies where there's a Japanese/Korean/Nazi/Confederate soldier who hasn't gotten word that the war is over and is still fighting?