Some interesting #'s so far.

[Iguana Man]

Hmmm, I know #'s can basically be manipulated in just about any way the person wants so his point appears valid, but.....

This breakdown to me seems rather troubling for HD-DVD.

[Ruined]

While HD DVD does need more studio support eventually, that will come with player sales. The whole war cannot be so easily boiled down to content and hit films and nothing else otherwise HD DVD would have lost over a year ago as it was the same then.

Blu-Ray has more studio support, but their players also cost twice the price. Mass market will not buy into Blu-Ray at this point no matter how much studio support there is because the price on players is too high. This is one major area where HD DVD has the advantage - both players and discs are cheaper to manufacture. As long as HD DVD continues to have a good selection of titles, I'd wager that is good enough for most who are jumping in to the HD market.

Also, despite the extra studios, HD DVD managed to release more titles Q2 than Blu-Ray. Fox on BD also has been a virtual no-show this year. Disney's BD support has also been week with the occasional blockbuster here and there rather than full-on support. So though BD has more studios in # with more blockbusters, the actual releases those studios are putting out are lesser in number than that of HD DVD.

[Iguana Man]

The one thing you left out Ruined is advertising. I'm a guy that watches for this type marketing and frankly, I've seen little on the HD-DVD side. Perhaps if HD-DVD picked it up in this regard, it wouldn't seem so doom and gloom for me concerning HD-DVD. They (BR) afterall HAVE stepped it up. Whenever I talk to the JSP's at work, they all know of Blu Ray but not of HD-DVD.

I try and let them know otherwise, but damn....it's not looking good IMO.

[MooglePorn]

I don't think things look great for either camp really, but with sales numbers, the PS3 gaining momentum and the Blockbuster announcements I think BD is the clear winner so far. Ruined could be right that cheap players might make the difference this Xmas... but then we have the PS3's looming price cut and great looking Fall slate as well as a contender... and BD players are dropping in price as well.

I agree with Bill Hunt, this Xmas will be HD-DVD's death or resurgence.

[ganthc]

Not to mention the consideration that bd+ might be a success that helps control piracy. In that case, Fox/MGM and Disney are ready to unleash their libraries and really put the pressure on. It's pretty obvious that Fox held off because they didn't want their movies on hd unless they were protected. I think Disney has purposefully held back on its key animation features that will be an automatic sales boon (Lion King, Aladdin, etc.).

While cheap players might entice some buyers over to hd-dvd, it's hard to forget these players won't have the movies that people want. Despite people saying on this forum that they look at bd's slate of movies and don't like the selection, it's just a box office fact that those movies are what draw people in. Universal meanwhile has churned out subpar catalog titles to try and stay up. But who wants a slightly upgraded The Jerk, or Mallrats? What's really going to get people going are the new releases rather than the catalog titles, unless they are Star Wars, Jurassic Park, ET, etc. And then you have to hope that Universal doesn't just recycle an old master.

I think hd-dvd will limp along for longer than Christmas, but "the writing is on the wall."

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Iguana Man

The one thing you left out Ruined is advertising. I'm a guy that watches for this type marketing and frankly, I've seen little on the HD-DVD side. Perhaps if HD-DVD picked it up in this regard, it wouldn't seem so doom and gloom for me concerning HD-DVD. They (BR) afterall HAVE stepped it up. Whenever I talk to the JSP's at work, they all know of Blu Ray but not of HD-DVD.

I try and let them know otherwise, but damn....it's not looking good IMO.

IF the advertising is so important at this point in time, than why has HD DVD sold over 50% more standalones than Blu-Ray to date? Further, if HD DVD made a marketing blitz right now, is this really the time of year where the masses would start stocking up on HD DVD players?

I say, save the advertising money til players are 199-249 and its the season for buying (i.e. fall-winter)

[ganthc]

It's all about setting up a brand. Blu-ray is doing a good job of making a presence, even if not everyone is buying now. When it comes time to buy, a last ditch ad campaign at Christmas will not be good, because it forgets that Sony will be doing the same thing, but will have had months and months of brand recognition via marketing beforehand.

I'm just saying that Toshiba is making a mistake to cede the marketing territory to Sony right now. It's a bad strategy.

[Iguana Man]

Originally Posted by ganthc

It's a bad strategy.

As of now, Mr. Flip Flop agrees (not that is matters in the big scheme of things, but your point make sense to me.)

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by ganthc

I'm just saying that Toshiba is making a mistake to cede the marketing territory to Sony right now. It's a bad strategy.

I think I've figured out MS/Toshiba's strategy. Right now, they feel as if there are not enough people gung-ho about the technology to make it mainstream. But, by keeping HD DVD afloat it forces Sony to fight a war on two fronts - one for games and another for movies. If Microsoft or Toshiba gives massive exposure to HD DVD, they also give some to Blu-Ray as BD is marketed as "Next Generation DVD" etc. HD DVD is not quite ready for the mass market push yet, and they don't want to be killed off by gamers until that time comes; further, in the long term they want less people to adopt PS3 because that means less adopt Blu-Ray. So by underexposing HD DVD until all the blockbuster XBOX 360 games come out, they force Sony to spend money until the factors are in place for HD DVD to strike.

So, I am guessing the plan is this:

1) Keep HD DVD afloat by whatever means, but do not go overboard on advertising. Ensure that Sony has to keep bleeding money to put BD's name out there.

2) As Sony is bleeding to push both BD and PS3, Microsoft will be going full steam ahead ensuring XBOX 360 is the default choice this holiday season. They will help do this by orchestrating a price drop in conjugation with Halo 3 and GTA4, which will be the two biggest games of the season. They also have the option to drop the price of the HD DVD addon or bundle a black one with the Elite. PS3 will simply look overpriced in comparison and will be out of reach for most.

3) Shortly after this, HD DVD camp will orchestrate a player price drop to $249-199 when big sellers like the Harry Potter films, Bourne Ultimatum, Knocked Up, Evan Almighty arrive. This ensures a healthy number of players are sold and vastly expands the userbase.

4) If Microsoft can win the holiday season by adding millions of consoles sold, those are millions more that could buy HD DVD addons and millions that don't own Blu-Ray.

5) The combination of all these factors - Sony being defeated this season in the games department by Microsoft and outsold in the standalone players department by Toshiba means that a ton of high attach rate devices (standalones and HDAOs) will be put into the market. Sony will have to continue to bleed money and still they will not be in the dominant position they hoped to be in due to high console & player prices in addition to library that can't touch the 360's. And less PS3s sold means less BD players in the market.

6) The massive increase of high attach rate HD DVD devices will undoubtably increase HD DVD software sales.

7) Any increase of low attach rate devices like PS3 may be negated by the increase of good games on PS3 in the holiday season - gamers now have the option of going back to gaming instead of spending their money on Blu-Ray discs as they are content starved with their $600 game console; remember, unlike the HDAO, PS3 gamers are forced to buy Blu-Ray and many of them may not care all that much about it. And, if XBOX 360 appears the most attractive option for the mass market due to lower price, same graphics, and superior games, that is a whole lot less BD players and PS3s that will be sold, too.

These factors paint a very realistic picture of how HD DVD can not only stay in the game, but also gain some studio support in 2008 - assuming the HD DVD group can reach their goal of a million players by the end of the year. That number will begin to approach the tipping point where BD exclusive studios cannot ignore it anymore - especially LionsGate and Disney.

Its not just about HD DVD winning, but also about XBOX 360 winning so PS3 does worse than expected. Each helps the other. And when the time is right, Microsoft and Toshiba can coordinate their respective 360 & HD DVD attacks to apply the hurt both PS3 and BD - forcing Sony to spend their far fewer resources to attempt to fight a battle on two fronts.

[Iguana Man]

I flopped. Ruined, good one. Ganthc, I am salivating over your soon to be response!

YAY!

I love this stuff!

[videoworx]

Keep HD DVD afloat by whatever means

MS didn't mention the HD-DVD add-on once at E3 (although they did show off a new Halo-themed X-box, which combines elements of the premium and elite machines). Any and all new hardware would have been shown at E3 (as that is the purpose of E3). Microsoft had "whatever means" this week, and they passed on it.

At E3, it was announced Disney will support X-box Live with plenty of movies, further reinforcing MS' desire to go the download route, and forgo optical media. Microsoft could just as easily have convinced Disney to support HD-DVD. They didn't.

Any increase of low attach rate devices like PS3 may be negated by the increase of good games on PS3 in the holiday season

Exactly...they may. Or perhaps people may continue to buy both games and movies for what Sony is marketing as an entertainment system.

And then there's plenty of other BD players out there, all at competitive prices.

By the way, Evan Almighty is not going to push HD-DVD hardware.

[dugpa]

Originally Posted by videoworx

Microsoft could just as easily have convinced Disney to support HD-DVD. They didn't.

Actually, Disney was one of the studios that helped sheppard the development of hd-dvd as a part of the DVD Forum. It wasn't until Sony made them an offer they couldn't refuse that they decided to go blu-ray exclusive. Well, that and I'm sure Steve Jobs, Microsoft's arch rival, becoming the largest stock holder of Disney might have influenced them a bit. Make no mistake, Microsoft can't "easily" convince Disney to do anything. I'm sure the xbox download support involved a ton of cash.

[MooglePorn]

I think Ruined should explain the JFK assassination in bullet points as well... that was one hell of a complicated conspiracy theory designed to make HD DVD's demise look less so.

The main think I'll respond with is that a 360 + an HD DVD add on is now more than a PS3, especially if you go the Elite route to get HDMI and upscaling. PS3 - $500, Elite with HD DVD - $680. Hmmm.

And don't mention the PS3 being $499 until stock runs out either, since it's plainly obvious the new 80GB will drop to $499 at that point.

[videoworx]

Originally Posted by dugpa

I'm sure the xbox download support involved a ton of cash.

My point is that Microsoft could have convinced Disney to support HD-DVD at the same time they convinced them to support Xbox Live (with this alleged ton of cash). Using Ruined logic ("MS needs to keep HD-DVD afloat by whatever means"), this would have been the perfect opportunity to get Disney to commit to HD-DVD.

Alternatively, MS feels downloadable content is more important than HD-DVD. After E3, this seems a lot more obvious.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by videoworx

MS didn't mention the HD-DVD add-on once at E3 (although they did show off a new Halo-themed X-box, which combines elements of the premium and elite machines). Any and all new hardware would have been shown at E3 (as that is the purpose of E3). Microsoft had "whatever means" this week, and they passed on it.

At E3, it was announced Disney will support X-box Live with plenty of movies, further reinforcing MS' desire to go the download route, and forgo optical media. Microsoft could just as easily have convinced Disney to support HD-DVD. They didn't.

Right, because MS didn't want E3 to focus on optical disc formats and have Sony put BD in the spotlight. They wanted to set the tone to be about games, and that is what they did. Remember, the 360 does not have HD DVD builtin, however more 360s sold is less PS3s sold which in turn is less BD players sold. And, it gives a larger base to sell optional HD DVD drives to. This was all detailed in my previous post. Moogleporn also answered your inquiry nicely as well:

Originally Posted by Moogleporn

The main think I'll respond with is that a 360 + an HD DVD add on is now more than a PS3, especially if you go the Elite route to get HDMI and upscaling. PS3 - $500, Elite with HD DVD - $680. Hmmm.

Speaking of Moogleporn...

Originally Posted by Moogleporn

I think Ruined should explain the JFK assassination in bullet points as well... that was one hell of a complicated conspiracy theory designed to make HD DVD's demise look less so.

It was not entirely fabricated out of thin air

Oh, and that quote again:

Originally Posted by Moogleporn

The main think I'll respond with is that a 360 + an HD DVD add on is now more than a PS3, especially if you go the Elite route to get HDMI and upscaling. PS3 - $500, Elite with HD DVD - $680. Hmmm.

360 Premium with Toshiba HD-A2 standalone - $550 off Amazon starting 8/1. Best choice by far

[MooglePorn]

Anyone who buys a PS3 over a 360 for games right now is an idiot, but for movies? I dunno... also remember the PS3 is rated higher as a movie player than the add-on is.

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by Ruined

I think I've figured out MS/Toshiba's strategy. Right now, they feel as if there are not enough people gung-ho about the technology to make it mainstream. But, by keeping HD DVD afloat it forces Sony to fight a war on two fronts - one for games and another for movies.

You don't think Sony was ready to fight this war to begin with? After all, it really becomes one front as they market the ps3 as their top bd player. So either they have the accused trojan horse for gamers to adopt bd movies as their format, or they use the player to be a trojan horse to sell games, once they put out more good ones. At any rate, I doubt that Sony wasn't counting on having to market both.

If Microsoft or Toshiba gives massive exposure to HD DVD, they also give some to Blu-Ray as BD is marketed as "Next Generation DVD" etc. HD DVD is not quite ready for the mass market push yet, and they don't want to be killed off by gamers until that time comes; further, in the long term they want less people to adopt PS3 because that means less adopt Blu-Ray. So by underexposing HD DVD until all the blockbuster XBOX 360 games come out, they force Sony to spend money until the factors are in place for HD DVD to strike.

But that is assuming that Sony is just going to say, "We're out of money, so we won't advertise once hd-dvd starts advertising." I can only imagine the size and scope of the Sony ad budget. The winner of the war will see all that money recompensed. And with marketing, the one huge push won't be what wins, but like you've said, the long term. Sony has put a long term, brand establishing marketing campaign. By the time consumers are gung-ho, they will know what blu-ray means, is, and offers. HD-DVD will be late arrivals, with a lower price point, but fewer studios to offer movies. It's a terrible ad campaign strategy to cede ground. At least be competitive...because Sony sure will be when Toshiba et al are ready to ramp up their side.

So, I am guessing the plan is this:

1) Keep HD DVD afloat by whatever means, but do not go overboard on advertising. Ensure that Sony has to keep bleeding money to put BD's name out there.

Or don't advertise at all, it seems. Sony is not bleeding money to establish its brand. I am quite sure this is money that Sony budgeted for just this purpose. Blu-ray will be the Coca-Cola of high def media. HD-DVD will be the RC Cola. One advertises even when it doesn't need to, the other is a niche with a great fan base, but no advertising to speak of.

2) As Sony is bleeding to push both BD and PS3, Microsoft will be going full steam ahead ensuring XBOX 360 is the default choice this holiday season. They will help do this by orchestrating a price drop in conjugation with Halo 3 and GTA4, which will be the two biggest games of the season. They also have the option to drop the price of the HD DVD addon or bundle a black one with the Elite. PS3 will simply look overpriced in comparison and will be out of reach for most.

The console competition is different than the format competition, but Sony is more than ready to spend the money for both. To think that Sony didn't plan to wage a console war against 360/Wii or against hd-dvd is ridiculous. The real problem for the ps3 is the lack of exclusive games, plain and simple.

3) Shortly after this, HD DVD camp will orchestrate a player price drop to $249-199 when big sellers like the Harry Potter films, Bourne Ultimatum, Knocked Up, Evan Almighty arrive. This ensures a healthy number of players are sold and vastly expands the userbase.

Hmm...Harry Potter films will also be released on Blu-ray. The other three will not be as huge an impact. The prices have already fallen in this price range and players are selling. It hasn't shown on sales trends just yet, because of the studio support. But hey, you can always hope the whine campaign in Europe is successful.

4) If Microsoft can win the holiday season by adding millions of consoles sold, those are millions more that could buy HD DVD addons and millions that don't own Blu-Ray.

Didn't you post an article that stated, and you got on me for criticizing, that consoles aren't used for watching movies? Yet, your whole plan so far has centered around them. Hmm...which is it? And if I'm not mistaken, there are already millions of overheating 360's out there right now...but not real push on the add-ons. Especially when we see that they aren't even being brought up. A bundle deal would be great for hd-dvd, but it seems MS isn't going that route. Hmm, again.

5) The combination of all these factors - Sony being defeated this season in the games department by Microsoft and outsold in the standalone players department by Toshiba means that a ton of high attach rate devices (standalones and HDAOs) will be put into the market. Sony will have to continue to bleed money and still they will not be in the dominant position they hoped to be in due to high console & player prices in addition to library that can't touch the 360's. And less PS3s sold means less BD players in the market.

Once again, here we are counting ps3's as bd players. How odd! While the 360 is very competitive in the gaming department, it doesn't translate to hd-dvd being competitive in the movie department. Sales are still way behind, even with hd-dvd churning out all the catalog titles (that have had mixed reviews). Perhaps there needs to be a few more "Amazon buy hd-dvd days" on the horizon.

6) The massive increase of high attach rate HD DVD devices will undoubtably increase HD DVD software sales.

This is questionable. According to stats you faithfully post about standalone sales, it still hasn't translated into hd-dvd software sales dominance. The attachment rate has not translated into studios switching, unless hd-dvd and Toshiba are successful in their European complain campaign.

7) Any increase of low attach rate devices like PS3 may be negated by the increase of good games on PS3 in the holiday season - gamers now have the option of going back to gaming instead of spending their money on Blu-Ray discs as they are content starved with their $600 game console; remember, unlike the HDAO, PS3 gamers are forced to buy Blu-Ray and many of them may not care all that much about it. And, if XBOX 360 appears the most attractive option for the mass market due to lower price, same graphics, and superior games, that is a whole lot less BD players and PS3s that will be sold, too.

I'm confused. Does ps3 now win the console war because of good games, and thus it hurts 360, but also bd? I think it's been stated that if even 10% of the ps3 population bought the player for an inexpensive, fully adaptable bd player, you are still blowing hd-dvd out of the water. You have contradicting conditions here in your plan.

These factors paint a very realistic picture of how HD DVD can not only stay in the game, but also gain some studio support in 2008 - assuming the HD DVD group can reach their goal of a million players by the end of the year. That number will begin to approach the tipping point where BD exclusive studios cannot ignore it anymore - especially LionsGate and Disney.

http://news.digitaltrends.com/news/s..._as_sales_jump

Funny, since the initial forecast for sales was much higher and had to be brought down. Yet, I guess this new "goal" is the true reason for how studios will switch? Seems to me that the predictions of late last year when hd-dvd was riding high were the opportune time for studios to switch...but they didn't. Why would they do so now? The ps3 still offers bd studios the sign that bd is still a huge presence, not to mention that bd players are dropping in price steadily and could be in the same price range by this magical Christmas time where hd-dvd will rise to victory.

Its not just about HD DVD winning, but also about XBOX 360 winning so PS3 does worse than expected. Each helps the other. And when the time is right, Microsoft and Toshiba can coordinate their respective 360 & HD DVD attacks to apply the hurt both PS3 and BD - forcing Sony to spend their far fewer resources to attempt to fight a battle on two fronts.

It's a gamble that won't pay off. 360 may triumph from the gaming side, which suits MS in the whole deal, but hd-dvd will not win if they are not establishing a brand. Simply counting on the name won't do it. MS doesn't seem to have their heart on the hd-dvd side, besides the hda0, which it doesn't market. The coup that MS has played is in getting its overheating console out early and getting ps3 exclusive games to be released on 360. But none of that really helps Toshiba...unless you think that ps3's now DO have an impact on bd sales.