Think Warner might go HD DVD exclusive?

[Ruined]

I have to say I would see this as a bit far fetched as WB has made a lot of hoopla about their upcoming T3 BD release. Then again, who knows.

[Mr. Furious]

Well, well, well... lookie here.



I'll apologize upfront for the terrible image quality, but I took this with my cell phone. If you'll look at the picture, you'll notice that this is the single HD rack at the "Super" Target in Chaska, MN. On this rack, you'll notice that BluRay has almost double the allocated space that HD-DVD does. This goes back to what I was saying about stores not caring WHY something is so - it just is. They've allocated more shelf space to the product that is moving more volume. As a side note, Transformers was notibly absent from the rack.

Interestingly, neither BR or HDDVD had a particularly good selection (after all, it is just Target). Both sides had some titles taking up two or three positions on the rack (BR obviously doing it far more than HDDVD). In total, BR only had a scant more actual titles available. What this tells me is that unless HDDVD does extremely well this Christmas season, it could be in for serious trouble by the end of next year (maybe even dead). It wasn't a few months ago that Target had the exact same shelf space allocated for both. If retailers like Target continue to shift, I'll push the idea that retailers are making the decision for the format based on the sales volumes of their titles.

Attach rates are extremely important, but HD-DVD has got to get their total sales volume numbers up. If they can't get their shelf space up, the perception will be that it's a losing format and their numbers will actually decline. As much as people like to diss j6p, he'll ultimately be deciding the format for us. For him, things like bit rate, total storage, CODECs, and player firmware is meaningless. He just wants to buy his movies and know his investment is good. Don't underestimate the power of shelf space and the general availability of titles in his mind.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

Well, well, well... lookie here.
I'll apologize upfront for the terrible image quality, but I took this with my cell phone. If you'll look at the picture, you'll notice that this is the single HD rack at the "Super" Target in Chaska, MN. On this rack, you'll notice that BluRay has almost double the allocated space that HD-DVD does. This goes back to what I was saying about stores not caring WHY something is so - it just is. They've allocated more shelf space to the product that is moving more volume. As a side note, Transformers was notibly absent from the rack.

Interestingly, neither BR or HDDVD had a particularly good selection (after all, it is just Target). Both sides had some titles taking up two or three positions on the rack (BR obviously doing it far more than HDDVD). In total, BR only had a scant more actual titles available. What this tells me is that unless HDDVD does extremely well this Christmas season, it could be in for serious trouble by the end of next year (maybe even dead). It wasn't a few months ago that Target had the exact same shelf space allocated for both. If retailers like Target continue to shift, I'll push the idea that retailers are making the decision for the format based on the sales volumes of their titles.

Target shifted because Sony made a deal with them - Sony bought floor space to sell their BD product in Target stores nationally - not any other reason. Agreed that J6P may be fooled into thinking Target independently made this move by such deals, though.

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/15...lu-ray-endcap/

[ganthc]

Well since we are throwing out rumors, why not include these links that say that Warner is going Blu-ray exclusive? I don't believe Warner is choosing either, but here ya go:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/bluwarner103007.htm

http://www.engadget.com/2007/10/30/w...y-exclusively/

[Mr. Furious]

I guess there is some of the muscle I suggested Sony flex. Though I do have to agree with the article. How many people are going to drop $500 on a BR player at Target?

I buy movies at Target because they're cheaper than most of the other retailers on release day (same product, lower price). I just can't see buying my hardware from there unless it's got exactly what I wanted (seems unlikely). The "average" Target consumer doesn't seem terribly likely to make an impulse buy of a $500 BR player.

That being said, if HD-DVD doesn't get it's shelf space back soon, it's in for some trouble.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by ganthc

Well since we are throwing out rumors, why not include these links that say that Warner is going Blu-ray exclusive? I don't believe Warner is choosing either, but here ya go:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/bluwarner103007.htm

http://www.engadget.com/2007/10/30/w...y-exclusively/

Anything is possible, but based on Warner's buddy-buddy relationship with Toshiba I think HD DVD is more likely if they go one way or another.

Warner continues to say that they are re-evaluating their dual format strategy in Q4 recently; this is a big departure from their previous PR stance that dual format is bar none the way to go. This implies that they will most likely pick one format for primary support either Q4 2007 or Q1 2008. We'll see.

[Pirate]

I would be curious to see what each side would do if Warner did go neutral. Besides Derb's head exploding, I wonder how many would jump ship from one side or the other.

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by piratehunter

I would be curious to see what each side would do if Warner did go neutral. Besides Derb's head exploding, I wonder how many would jump ship from one side or the other.

Well, if they did go neutral, wouldn't that be the status quo?

[Pirate]

Originally Posted by ganthc

Well, if they did go neutral, wouldn't that be the status quo?

Yes... but I'm wondering how supporters will react. Would they continue to buy BD if Warner goes HD exclusive, or would they drop the format since Warner is such a major player? Being the status quo doesn't mean it would be over for the diehards.

[videoworx]

Isn't WB neutral right now, or am I missing something?

[Pirate]

Originally Posted by videoworx

Isn't WB neutral right now, or am I missing something?

Wait, I just realized why ganthc's post made no sense to me. Typo. I mean to say "if Warner goes exclusive." Sorry, haven’t had coffee yet.

[Derb]

Don't think I could take that much format war punishment... if WB ever choose 1 side, I'd probably stop buying everything until the format they choose becomes victorious, which I might add would not take long.

Actually no, my head would explode.

[ganthc]

I'm dual format, so it doesn't affect me at all. Warner would be a crown jewel for hd-dvd if they went exclusive that way. It would ensure that this war went on till the entire HDM fails and Microsoft can then institute its download scheme and control content delivery. It's possible that Disney might go neutral if Warner switched, but that unknown. Blu-ray would be hurt terribly though. If Warner goes to Blu-ray, it will be the killing shot against hd-dvd. The format would either have to give some massive buyout deal to get Disney or Fox to go neutral (which would likely be turned down) or it will fade, seeing Universal probably go neutral 8 months or so after Warner made such a decision.

Warner controls the fate of HDM, essentially, and I think they know it.

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by piratehunter

Wait, I just realized why ganthc's post made no sense to me. Typo. I mean to say "if Warner goes exclusive." Sorry, haven’t had coffee yet.

[plissken99]

I'm dual format, but if Warner chooses a side, I'll buy all the dual releases for whatever they choose. Sadly it seems they are leaning toward Blu Ray. My only gripe with BD is region coding, but thats a big un'. Hopefully if BD becomes the dominant format, we'll see region free players.

[Pirate]

I want to be format neutral!

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by piratehunter

I want to be format neutral!

You could be if you weren't bigoted towards boxy things with disc drives as your bd player.

[Pirate]

Originally Posted by ganthc

You could be if you weren't bigoted towards boxy things with disc drives as your bd player.

I almost bought a Sony BDP-S300 the other day, but I'm really hoping the Samsung dual player will be worthwhile. At this stage in the game, that seems like the smartest move. But gawd I hate waiting! It was soooooo hard not to buy Spider-Man 2 on BD today!

[Pirate]

Warner Mulls Change in High-Def Strategy

A Warner Home Video exec says the studio is re-evaluating its dual-format support, and appeared to suggest that it was leaning towards Blu-ray.

As first reported by Home Media Magazine, the studio's statements came at yesterday's Blu-ray Festival press event in Los Angeles, where Warner VP Dan Silverberg represented the only major dual-format studio, following Paramount's move to HD DVD exclusivity this past August.

According to Silverberg, however, that may not be for long.

"One thing that may be changing is our strategy," he said. "When both formats launched and hardware prices were high, we made a decision to support both formats and let the consumer decide. But now that hardware pricing is affordable for both Blu-ray and HD DVD, it appears consumers no longer want to decide — so the notion of staying in two formats for the duration is something we are re-evaluating now that we are in the fourth quarter."

Silverberg went on to emphasize the Warner's strong Blu-ray sales, noting that the studio's Blu-ray release of '300' is the format's top selling disc. "We can definitely talk Blu-ray," said Silverberg. "We are committed to the format."

Taken together, a "commitment" to Blu-ray and re-evaluation of its dual-format policy would seem to suggest that if the studio did choose one format over the other, it would be Blu-ray, although it wasn't immediately clear whether that was the intent of Silverberg's remarks.

Silverberg declined to provide a timeline for a final decision from the studio, but here's guessing we'll be hearing more on this topic in the coming days and weeks. Stay tuned...

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh..._Strategy/1123

[Mr. Furious]

I just want this war to be over so I can buy my HD copy of Star Trek: TOS remastered! I haven't ordered it yet but it's almost enough for me to go HD-DVD just for that.

Yes, I lead a sad existence.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by piratehunter

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh..._Strategy/1123

Did anyone really expect Warner to say that Blu-Ray isn't a solid format and that they were going with HD DVD at a Blu-Ray convention?

I would say its quite obvious Warner's lean is towards HD DVD - they are heavily involved in the format, have royalty-generating patents in the format, and have even lent HD DVD promotional material from their movies such as the "take the red pill" Matrix ad. Whether they will actually pick a side and when, though, is to be seen. And of course, the decision could go either way despite Warner's lean.

[Shawn Watson]

If Warner ditches HD-DVD then count me out of the hi-def game for good.

Shawn

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Shawn Watson

If Warner ditches HD-DVD then count me out of the hi-def game for good.

Shawn

We'll see if these latest rumors actually amount to anything within the next week. If Warner ditches either side though, it makes sense the side would be Blu-Ray. They have always treated Blu-Ray as the bastard child and they have more money to make off HD DVD if it goes mainstream.

[Derb]

Warner is toooooooooooo big. If they pick a side, consider that side victorious. Plain & Simple.

I kinda hope they don't though because Universal has already released 100+ titles & I have pored too much $$$ buying/support them for HD DVD, I would not do the same for Blu-Ray. Re-buying Warner's catalog to BD almost killed me. (30+ titles)

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Derb

Warner is toooooooooooo big. If they pick a side, consider that side victorious. Plain & Simple.

I kinda hope they don't though because Universal has already released 100+ titles & I have pored too much $$$ buying/support them for HD DVD, I would not do the same for Blu-Ray. Re-buying Warner's catalog to BD almost killed me. (30+ titles)

Well, I was confused when you made that move Derb. I mean, its not like you were guaranteed either side would win yet you spent a lot of cash rebuying titles because you had a flaky piece of hardware and didn't like firmware updates. Though HD DVD had some hiccups with its 1st gen and at the start of 2nd gen, now things are quite solid. In fact, BD is starting to have some of the same hiccups HD DVD had at first with HDi now that BD-J and BD+ are being integrated more intensively into discs. BD started out with simple discs that weren't much different than DVD interactivity-wise and BD is now moving on to more complex discs - resulting in needed firmware updates now. HD DVD started out with complex discs requiring firmware updates back then and is now simply refining the platform with far less user interaction/FW updates needed. If both camps are going to be on par with each other, both will have to go through the same growing pains as authoring houses learn to do more than standard DVD - HD DVD just went through them earlier while BD is going through them later.

Either way, you will likely be able to find a player from either side of this war for some time to come. I would not concern myself with rebuying titles simply so you can be on the side that is "winning," because no one has yet "won" nor may either side ever "win." I believe that even if HD DVD dominates, there will be small niche of people who buy Blu-Ray and vice versa.

[Sehnzeleid]

I still don't get the rebuying titles thing, it's not like if one of the formats "dies" said format's integration into future universal players will be impossible.