Think Warner might go HD DVD exclusive?

[MooglePorn]

I hope they announce one way or another tomorrow... Either come out and say you're not switching anything yet, or come out for one format or the other. Just end the rumors right away, that's all I ask.

If they pick one I bet it's BD though.

[ganthc]

Not to mention that Warner went back and rereleased all their combos as noncombos months later. PiP is not a deal breaker in my opinion, as any documentary features it has can just as easily be put in a special featurette or something. The internet stuff is a joke at this point, with the longevity associated with dvd-rom interactivity.

Finally, I did find that the "world disc" option for Warner is a big pull. I didn't realize that Warner was doing that.

[jbat31]

there is supposed to be a big press conference today, so we shall see

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by jbat31

there is supposed to be a big press conference today, so we shall see

Latest is that the conference today will not announce exclusivity for either side and likely Warner will not make their decision until Q1 2008, based on the penetration of the Toshiba standalones over the holiday season.

[Mr. Furious]

So... essentially they're making a press conference to say they're not doing anything?

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

So... essentially they're making a press conference to say they're not doing anything?

No from what I've heard it is a press conference to discuss their holiday products. They may also reaffirm their neutrality, but it does seem they are getting close to making a decision.

IMO, whichever side they go with will likely win. WB knows this, as does BDA and HD DVD PRG so they will both do their best to get them.

As I've stated before, and as Warner has stated recently, I believe the winning of this war will boil down to whether Toshiba can sell their players to J6P for $199 this xmas or not. If J6P still doesn't care even at that price point, then there may be problems not only for HD DVD but HDM in general.

[Toefur]

It's likely that they are just posturing to get the best incentive deal possible. If Paramount was worth $150 Mil, WB has to feel that they are worth twice that. Or at the very least they may be working on getting better manufacturing and licensing deals with either side.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Toefur

It's likely that they are just posturing to get the best incentive deal possible. If Paramount was worth $150, WB has to feel that they are worth twice that. Or at the very least they may be working on getting better manufacturing and licensing deals with either side.

Yes, assuming that they are going to make a decision soon as they've stated, WB is clearly looking to play up their value on both sides for the best incentive deal.

[ganthc]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...02dbdc92804c43

A Warner source said the studio is watching what happens now that Wal-Mart and other big retailers are selling entry-level Toshiba HD DVD players for less than $200, about half what the cheapest Blu-ray player costs. If there is a significant spike in HD DVD software sales, the studio may cast its lot with that format, whereas if there is no real impact, Warner may go Blu-ray only.

An interesting point in the article that seems to support the Q4 waiting game.

[Ruined]

Whatever they announce, which will probably be that Harry Potter is going to own the holidays or something, it is apparently going to be announced at 2pm EST.

[Sanjuro]

Originally Posted by Ruined

which will probably be that Harry Potter is going to own the holidays or something,

pwnageous holidaous!

[Iguana Man]

Who has Harry Potter? Red, Blu or both?

[Dogg]

Originally Posted by Derb

The news sure has Bill Hunt steamed. Sounds like Toshiba is trying PAY OFF Warner. If they succeed, I am happy to go back to my VHS tapes & watch 240i rez with 2CH analog sound with formatted to fit 4:3 televisions.

Those were the [i]real[i] "Full Screen" movies...it said so right on the box.

[Pirate]

Originally Posted by Iguana Man

Who has Harry Potter? Red, Blu or both?

Both.

[Derb]

Maybe the news is Warner will do the same deal as their cousin New Line with new releases.

[Ruined]

Looks like more "insider info" that turned out to be BS.

[Shawn Watson]

We can definitely talk Blu-ray. We are committed to the format.

Apparently these are not the words of the Warner dude and actually the words of David Berman, director of Home Theater Specialists of America (HTSA), a buying consortium of 62 dealers and 800 installers with combined revenue of more than half a billion dollars a year. He said the HTSA supports Blu-ray because a member survey found 92% favoring Blu-ray over HD DVD.



Shawn

[MooglePorn]

Everyone reported that as a Warner quote... where did you get that?

[Mr. Furious]

So - what was the actual announcement?

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

So - what was the actual announcement?

There was none, turned out to be BS.

Warner basically has said that they will make a decision in Q1 2008 depending on if Toshiba is able to sell their HD DVD players to the masses this XMAS. It looks like that is in the process of being successful with the Walmart alliance, so it looks good for HD DVD right now IMO.

[Mr. Furious]

Originally Posted by Ruined

There was none, turned out to be BS.

Warner basically has said that they will make a decision in Q1 2008 depending on if Toshiba is able to sell their HD DVD players to the masses this XMAS. It looks like that is in the process of being successful with the Walmart alliance, so it looks good for HD DVD right now IMO.

I hope so, I'm throwing in my lot with HD DVD tomorrow. I can't believe I'm shopping at WalMart. I hate that place.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

I hope so, I'm throwing in my lot with HD DVD tomorrow. I can't believe I'm shopping at WalMart. I hate that place.

The chances WB will go with BD are VERY slim IMO. WB has been one of the driving forces behind HD DVD, has lots of royalty-generating patents in HD DVD, and has always treated BD like the bastard child. HD DVD gets the better WB releases with more features and more title selections. WB authors to HD DVD then uses the MS utility to port the encode to BD. Most of the WB-sponsored HD events are co-sponsored with Toshiba. WB also a part of Walmart/Toshiba promotions in Canada.

So, with the frenzy the $99-$199 Toshi is creating, the prospects for HD DVD combined with WB's already heavy HD DVD lean are VERY very good.

[ganthc]

But there is always that with the question of how long does Warner want the hd wars to go on? If they choose blu-ray, the war is over. Hd-dvd will slide into obscurity with Universal likely going neutral 8 months later, and Paramount when the deal expires. But if they choose hd-dvd, the two sides remain entrenched. Given Disney's rhetoric as of late towards Paramount, I don't see them being enamored with hd-dvd, and we all know how Fox feels about them. Sony obviously won't go neutral until blu-ray is dead. The result? HDM dies like dvd-a and sacd did. Warner knows this, and so that may factor into their decision as well.

[Mr. Furious]

I don't think that's true. If Warner goes HD-DVD, I think the war will be over for BD. Why? Because Warner's catalog is fantastic and the price point for HD-DVD is too good to ignore. I said early on that the war will be decided by J6P. We can all laugh at his expense, but until he starts buying things en masse, things will drag on.

This Christmas is the deciding factor. If HD-DVD starts flying out the doors (which at <$200 it's likely too), j6p wants to buy/rent movies for his new purchase. Warner's catalog in HD-DVD will be a big draw. That's going to bump up sales and start skewing traffic towards retailers that handle HD-DVD. That can be ignored for a while, but this is where the attach rates that Ruined was crowing about will make a difference. It won't take much for HD-DVD to overtake BD if they're moving rapidly during Christmas. In both cases, neither HD-DVD or BD are moving a large volume (right now) so it takes little movement for one to outpace the other.

Damn, now I'm going to have to sell my transformers SD & 300 SD. :\

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by ganthc

But there is always that with the question of how long does Warner want the hd wars to go on? If they choose blu-ray, the war is over.

If they choose HD DVD, the war would essentially be over too. Sure, PS3 owners would have a niche "PS3 format" to buy movies off of, but they would be dwarfed by standalone HD DVD owners. HD DVD would have far, far more exclusive releases than BD as the bulk of BD releases are from Sony and WB. HD DVD would have lower priced players and the media is cheaper for studios to replicate hence the profit margin is higher. BD+ is already cracked. What would be left for the remaining studios to stick with BD exclusively? Sony can't give them free replication forever, and they can't give them the userbase they want either with PS3 constantly being in last place in the USA.

IMO, if WB picks either side, its game over for the other side - at least in the US.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

Damn, now I'm going to have to sell my transformers SD & 300 SD. :\

Once you see the awesome bluescreen PIP feature of 300, you'll see it was well worth selling the SD version. The last scene of 300 is especially hilarious to watch with the blue screen PIP enabled.

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

I don't think that's true. If Warner goes HD-DVD, I think the war will be over for BD. Why? Because Warner's catalog is fantastic and the price point for HD-DVD is too good to ignore. I said early on that the war will be decided by J6P. We can all laugh at his expense, but until he starts buying things en masse, things will drag on.

It probably will. But not for a long time, and in that time, HDM won't catch on. Studies have shown that most people are waiting for the war to end before they jump in. There will be some people buying Hd-a2's but not enough to decide the war by 2008 or maybe 2009. J6P won't want to buy into a format that won't give him all the movies he wants. There are tech-savvy forum members here on dvdfile that aren't jumping in yet because of that too. How much moreso would j6p wait?

This Christmas is the deciding factor. If HD-DVD starts flying out the doors (which at <$200 it's likely too), j6p wants to buy/rent movies for his new purchase. Warner's catalog in HD-DVD will be a big draw. That's going to bump up sales and start skewing traffic towards retailers that handle HD-DVD. That can be ignored for a while, but this is where the attach rates that Ruined was crowing about will make a difference. It won't take much for HD-DVD to overtake BD if they're moving rapidly during Christmas. In both cases, neither HD-DVD or BD are moving a large volume (right now) so it takes little movement for one to outpace the other.

The key will be whether the increase in Toshiba standalones will counter the ps3 effect and the sales of bd players. Toshiba players are not being sold in a vaccuum, there is competition out there. The key is whether sales of software correspond with the sale of hardware. Toshiba has already been selling their machines like crazy with the large giveaways of free movies, including great deals with Heroes and 300, and even the Matrix (which is when I jumped in). It hasn't changed the dynamic in software sales one bit, with the exception of the Transformers week, which still lost to Disney offering BOGO on catalog titles. You hear of Microsoft maybe having the xbox put an hd-dvd drive in their new 360's. Why would they even consider doing that if the ps3 model wasn't returning dividends? Sadly, they may have already missed that boat.

But you're right. Q4 will be a huge indicator of whether HD-DVD makes a huge comeback and takes the lead, or whether Blu-ray shows that even if Toshiba has a firesale on players, there still remains the 2:1 sales margin.