Think Warner might go HD DVD exclusive?

[Iguana Man]

Originally Posted by Taxi

How can a $99 HD-DVD player have much of an impact if it's only for one day, and only (let's go conservative) 50 people per store will get one? This isn't going to effect J6P at all, just the relatively few lucky internet folks who can afford to miss a couple hours of work to wait in line at Wal Mart tomorrow.

Interesting point but it's a start. Are you talking long term or short term impact?

[Taxi]

Originally Posted by Iguana Man

Interesting point but it's a start. Are you talking long term or short term impact?

Long term is all that really matters, right?

[sub780lime]

Originally Posted by Iguana Man

Interesting point but it's a start. Are you talking long term or short term impact?

50 players per store for the largest retailer in the United States. I would say thats a little bit of an impact. If we used 3,000 stores, that would be 150,000 players...

[videoworx]

50 players per store for the largest retailer in the United States. I would say thats a little bit of an impact. If we used 3,000 stores, that would be 150,000 players...

Add that to all existing HD-DVD players that have been sold, and it still falls far short of Toshiba's sales projections.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Taxi

Long term is all that really matters, right?

If you noticed in the thread you closed () Walmart is now behind HD DVD in general with its new Toshiba HD DVD ads. While this is a one day $99 secret sale, the permanent price of the HD-A2 appears to be 198 at walmart and they will be likely promoting it throughout the holiday season - odds are there will be at least one more $99 day, too.

To ask how many players? Well, back earlier this year it was leaked that Walmart had procured 2 million HD DVD players to sell through for the holiday season. This is likely the beginning of the result of that purchase.

Walmart has over 3000 stores and over 500 Sam's Clubs. If they manage to sell through the 2 million players they supposedly bought over the holiday season, it would easily reverse the current software sales trend and then some if HD DVD attach rates remain similar.

[MooglePorn]

To respond to "whoever Warner picks they win" stuff, I think this is true, but still radically different outcomes will result based on who they pick. I don't picture Sony or Fox giving up anytime soon and if Warner picked HD DVD it would take a long time for that choice to result in a win, and in that time the market will remain fractured and HDM as a whole suffers. If they pick BD, along with BD's sales lead and exclusive studios, I think BD would wrap this thing up quick... If Warner knows this, it could influence their decision.

As for the cheaper players, we'll see what effect they have... Even if the cheap HD DVD players sell well the best they can hope for is to even out sales numbers in my opinion, not suddenly overtake their 2 to 1 sales lag. Factor on top of that the cheaper PS3 and cheaper BD stand alones this holiday (and a big Sony media push) and who knows what effect, if any, this will have.

I think it's more consumer confidence in the format than a dirt-cheap player a lot of people are waiting for.

[Vonner]

Originally Posted by Ruined

If you noticed in the thread you closed () Walmart is now behind HD DVD in general with its new Toshiba HD DVD ads. While this is a one day $99 secret sale, the permanent price of the HD-A2 appears to be 198 at walmart and they will be likely promoting it throughout the holiday season - odds are there will be at least one more $99 day, too.

I saw the HD-DVD Ad and was surprised by it. I went to my local Wal-Mart the other day and they FINALLY had high definition DVD's. The surprising part was the number of blu-ray's out-numbers the HD-DVD's by a large margin. That was disappointing. At least they weren't selling them for $35 (*cough* Best/Worst Buy *cough*).

[MooglePorn]

Originally Posted by Vonner

I saw the HD-DVD Ad and was surprised by it. I went to my local Wal-Mart the other day and they FINALLY had high definition DVD's. The surprising part was the number of blu-ray's out-numbers the HD-DVD's by a large margin. That was disappointing. At least they weren't selling them for $35 (*cough* Best/Worst Buy *cough*).

Yeah, my Wal-Mart stocks a lot more BD than HD DVD as well... about a 2 to 1 margin.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by MooglePorn

To respond to "whoever Warner picks they win" stuff, I think this is true, but still radically different outcomes will result based on who they pick. I don't picture Sony or Fox giving up anytime soon and if Warner picked HD DVD it would take a long time for that choice to result in a win, and in that time the market will remain fractured and HDM as a whole suffers.

If HD DVD can move their standalones to the masses this xmas with its better valued players, my bet is that Warner will go HD DVD exclusive and Disney will fold in short order - followed by Fox and eventually Sony. 300,000 HD DVD standalones have been fighting against 10x as many BD players. Imagine if that HD DVD number was multiplied by 5... The sales chart would be reversed in short order.

[Derb]

Originally Posted by Ruined

If HD DVD can move their standalones to the masses this xmas with its better valued players,

Better valued players? Were not talking about the HD-A2 are we? The Lego machine?

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Derb

Better valued players? Were not talking about the HD-A2 are we? The Lego machine?

I'm referencing the Toshiba HD-A2, 2007 Product of the Year:
http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2...6-32937828_ITM

Not sure what you're going on about.

[Derb]

Originally Posted by Ruined

I'm referencing the Toshiba HD-A2, 2007 Product of the Year:
http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2...6-32937828_ITM

Ouch.. Now I just feel sorry for editors of EH publishing.

[MooglePorn]

Originally Posted by Ruined

If HD DVD can move their standalones to the masses this xmas with its better valued players, my bet is that Warner will go HD DVD exclusive and Disney will fold in short order - followed by Fox and eventually Sony. 300,000 HD DVD standalones have been fighting against 10x as many BD players. Imagine if that HD DVD number was multiplied by 5... The sales chart would be reversed in short order.

So since BD has been winning the software sales game for months and months now, and that has meant nothing to you, why would HD DVD suddenly winning that race (IF it does) mean anything? Same thing with Transformers... Why do software sales only mean something to you when they fit your arguement?

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by MooglePorn

So since BD has been winning the software sales game for months and months now, and that has meant nothing to you, why would HD DVD suddenly winning that race (IF it does) mean anything? Same thing with Transformers... Why do software sales only mean something to you when they fit your arguement?

Because now we are talking about numbers that are 5x greater than what we have now. We are starting to move into the 8-10% range instead of 2%. You know, something significant - not to mention the timing it will have that Warner Bros decision will be based.

[MooglePorn]

Originally Posted by Ruined

Because now we are talking about numbers that are 5x greater than what we have now. We are starting to move into the 8-10% range instead of 2%. You know, something significant - not to mention the timing it will have that Warner Bros decision will be based.

You're making a lot of assumptions there.

[Sanjuro]

Personally I think this is HUGE news for HD-DVD. I am seeing people talk about this on forums I go to that have nothing to do with AV. A bunch are 'taking the HD plunge" because of it. There is an excitement in the air... thats a good thing for them any way you look at it.

[sub780lime]

Originally Posted by videoworx

Add that to all existing HD-DVD players that have been sold, and it still falls far short of Toshiba's sales projections.

Maybe so, but you are still talking over 100,000 pieces of hardware in one day.

[jriseden]

Unless the people buying the $99 players also go out and spend $200 in software this week, I doubt this will even be a blip on the software charts over the next few weeks.

Sorry guys but there is no quick solution to the format war. It will most likely be the holiday season of 2008 or possibly even 2009 that will decide whether or not Warners jumps ship.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by jriseden

Unless the people buying the $99 players also go out and spend $200 in software this week, I doubt this will even be a blip on the software charts over the next few weeks.

Sorry guys but there is no quick solution to the format war. It will most likely be the holiday season of 2008 or possibly even 2009 that will decide whether or not Warners jumps ship.

Warner has already said to TWICE in an interview that they will be looking to see if Toshiba can sell lots of hardware to the masses, they did not mention needing to see any software increase. Warner believes they can sell the razors just fine if the standalone blades are in place.

[supercutz]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

It's a snowball effect. As the price point for critical mass is reached more and more motion will pick up and an increasing number of people hop on board. J6P isn't defined as one particular income or type of person, it's basically just average video consumer. Since he spans a range of incomes and types, we'll see more J6P's jump in at different times. However, the sub-$200 seems to be the point at where most dive in.

So, in my cartoon bubble, I see this: J6P sees a $99 HD player. He may not even be aware that there is ANY difference in the HDDVD and BD. He'll just see $99, HD, and blammo, he's buying. As that starts taking off and the format really starts to launch, more and more shelf space will shift towards HD-DVD. Until it is the dominant format.

The only caveat to this is the possibility that HD-DVD prices return to > $200 AND the movies stay high at $30 ea. In that case, it'll have a hard time gaining mass acceptance because both formats are too expensive. It may stall or even kill HD in general.

Based on history (see DVD vs Divx) I'm going to have to disagree with you. My definition of "J6P" is the masses and the masses are not buying into either format as long as there is a division of support amongst movie companies. Hell, even companies like WB aren't consistent (where's Batman Begins on BD?). After Divx died, DVD took off and quick. Although not at the same frantic pace, I imagine the same thing would happen to the winner of the HD format war. As more and more people invest in HDTVs they'll want to invest in HD movies to justify their purchase yet the ONLY thing preventing them from doing so is F'ed up support by both movie companies and retailers. I still say this war must be won by the studios in order for J6P to jump on board. I frequent Best Buy and Frys on a weekly basis (I got a problem, I know) and I cannot recall the last time where I was in the movie isle and not hearing a consumer inquire about either HD format. The end result is usually summarized as "thanks. I'll wait and see."

[jriseden]

Originally Posted by Ruined

Warner has already to TWICE in an interview that they will be looking to see if Toshiba can sell lots of hardware to the masses, they did not mention needing to see any software increase. Warner believes they can sell the razors just fine if the standalone blades are in place.

So Warners is going to dump blu-ray at a time when software sales roughly favor blu-ray 60:40?

I see the logic that you are clinging on to, but I bet Warners wasn't counting on Toshiba GIVING AWAY players in order to gain an installed user base. I think Warner Bros will go with the crowd that buys the most movies, not the crowd that gets an almost free player, UNLESS that free player crowd is willing to buy numerous discs at 20-30 bucks a pop.

[ganthc]

There is irony in the fact that even if people buy hd-dvds with their new hda2's, those sales won't be reflected in any sales numbers, because it's at Walmart.

[Mr. Furious]

Originally Posted by ganthc

There is irony in the fact that even if people buy hd-dvds with their new hda2's, those sales won't be reflected in any sales numbers, because it's at Walmart.

Explain - why is this so?

[Botch]

I will say this, I have been sitting on the fence waiting to see who would win the war before I bought in to HD. I have been leaning Blue, as they looked to be winning, until the Paramount deal. I bought in to DVD about a year after it came out. I will tell you that the $98 deal for the HD-A2 was something I couldn't resist. I bought one and have a few disks already on order. The way I see it is that even if BR wins, I haven't lost much and have a devent upscaling player for it. If HD-DVD wins, i'm already set. If the war goes on for a long time, I will go purple (once good 1.1 or 2.0 players arrive for a decent price). Then I can get the best of both worlds. I will say the the excessive DRM of BR is a negative in my eyes. Also, the slow load times from BD+ is also a concern. Hopefully 1.1 players will load these much faster.

[jbat31]

Originally Posted by Ruined

Because now we are talking about numbers that are 5x greater than what we have now. We are starting to move into the 8-10% range instead of 2%. You know, something significant - not to mention the timing it will have that Warner Bros decision will be based.

I disagree. Transformers, whose sales figures were impressive were still less the 2% of total sales. We are still talking tiny numbers in the grand scheme of things

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

Explain - why is this so?

Nielsen ratings do not account for Walmart. So any sales that happen there will not be reflected in the sales percentages for the period.