Think Warner might go HD DVD exclusive?

[chlngr1970]

So, in an article in News Day, there are a few tidbits that say:

The brinkmanship is intensifying. Another major studio, Warner Bros., is being courted by both camps and believed to be mulling over a lucrative offer that could bring such popular titles as "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" into the HD DVD camp, according to Hollywood insiders who requested anonymity because the talks were confidential.

but,

Any movement by one of the studios tilts the playing field in one direction or the other," said David Sanderson, head of the global media practice at consulting firm Bain & Co. "It's a bit of jump ball right now.

So, I guess it all comes down to who has the deeper pockets.

j

[Ruined]

IMO, if Warner does go HD DVD exclusive it will only be for a time-limited basis. (i.e. until HD DVD is clearly a successfully adopted standard by the mass market consumer).

The way I see this war playing out is that HD DVD will become the format of choice for the average consumer/movie watcher while Blu-Ray will remain a viable option for PS3 owners. All studios therefore will probably release for both formats in the long run - I can see HD DVD near the DVD movies and Blu-Ray next to PS3 games (similar to how UMD is positioned next to PSP games in retail stores)

That is, unless the PS3 remains in last place in the console wars as it has thus far and continues to sell poorly. In that case, I can see the dropping of BD movie support simply because the amount being sold will not justify the cost. A few hundred thousand copies sold simply won't be worth it if that is the ceiling that is reached.

[supercutz]

Originally Posted by Ruined

The way I see this war playing out is that HD DVD will become the format of choice for the average consumer/movie watcher while Blu-Ray will remain a viable option for PS3 owners. All studios therefore will probably release for both formats in the long run - I can see HD DVD near the DVD movies and Blu-Ray next to PS3 games (similar to how UMD is positioned next to PSP games in retail stores)

If HD-DVD becomes the format of choice for most consumers BR will die. The PS3 is not enough to sustain a movie format and if we ever do see BR movies being relocated to the games section of retail stores it will be a clear indication of the format's ultimate demise just like Sony's UMD.

[Derb]

After the massive Q4 planned titles for release by Warner on BD, it is doubtfull.

Never the less if Warner did decide to back HD DVD exclusively, I wouldn't hesitate to dump all my BDs & stick with that format only cause they have the power to end the war with over 40% control over hollywood.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by Derb

After the massive Q4 planned titles for release by Warner on BD, it is doubtfull.

I'm not going to say it is going to happen, but Paramount had a pretty full slate too for BD before they announced HD DVD exclusivity. Let's face it, this thing is still anyone's game and it is currently a stalemate.

Originally Posted by Derb

Never the less if Warner did decide to back HD DVD exclusively, I wouldn't hesitate to dump all my BDs & stick with that format only cause they have the power to end the war with over 40% control over hollywood.

Why? Its not like your BDs are going to stop working even if the format dies completely, and there is plenty of player hardware that will remain out there if your player breaks. I was similarly confused by your HD DVD purge/BD binge of titles you already owned.

[ganthc]

Toshiba recently paid a collective $150 million to Paramount Pictures and DreamWorks Animation in a bid to buy their support, according to people with knowledge of the terms of the transactions.

Of course, Ruined and chlngr1970 are still in denial about this.

But the additions are probably not enough to win the war. Blu-ray is the leader, with seven of the summer's 15 biggest box-office performers headed for exclusive release in its format, including "Spider-Man 3," "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer," "Ratatouille," "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," "The Simpsons Movie" and "Superbad."
...
What's more, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the dominant seller of DVDs, has been contemplating whether to boot stand-alone HD DVD players from its shelves in favor of Blu-ray. Wal-Mart executives would not talk about the company's conversations with suppliers, but said it would continue to carry hardware and software in both formats until consumers indicate a clear preference.

If hd-dvd doesn't get Warner exclusive, but blu-ray gets Walmart exclusive, that could be terrible for this Christmas season. There just won't be enough retail shelf space for Toshiba to sell the players it wants.

[Pirate]

Originally Posted by Ruined

Why? Its not like your BDs are going to stop working even if the format dies completely, and there is plenty of player hardware that will remain out there if your player breaks. I was similarly confused by your HD DVD purge/BD binge of titles you already owned.

Actually Derb's player will stop working... and probably explode.

[MooglePorn]

Originally Posted by Ruined

The way I see this war playing out is that HD DVD will become the format of choice for the average consumer/movie watcher while Blu-Ray will remain a viable option for PS3 owners.

As you've said many times, but it doesn't sound any more likely this time. BD is not UMD, it has stand-alone players, exclusive movie studios, offers a significant upgrade from DVD and is promoted like crazy.

And Sony is far from the only BD backer.

[Derb]

Originally Posted by piratehunter

Actually Derb's player will stop working... and probably explode.

Exactly!

Thats why I have sooooooooooooooooo many back up HD DVD players for the inevitable.

The reason for the splurge was simple. I find BDs of ease of use over HD DVDs. More consumer friendly.

[sub780lime]

If the money is right.

[venetian blinds]

Am I the only person on here that ISNT a millionaire? Even if blu ray won out a few years down the road ( a few years before the next big medium came calling), no way would i dump all my HDDVDs.

[Derb]

The news sure has Bill Hunt steamed. Sounds like Toshiba is trying PAY OFF Warner. If they succeed, I am happy to go back to my VHS tapes & watch 240i rez with 2CH analog sound with formatted to fit 4:3 televisions.

[akrycek]

If I were Warner, I would go HD-DVD exclusive just from a business standpoint. Think about it. Since this deal could make or break HD-DVD, they could say, "Ok. We will become exclusive for $200 million.". They could charge that much or more to cover some of the losses of sales to Blu-Ray customers for now. Even if they become exclusive, HD-DVD still seems to have an uphill battle to fight. If HD-DVD dies, Warner can then resell all of those same movies on Blu-Ray at a later time.

I'm sure there are flaws in my theory though. One big one is how fickle people become with movies. The Ocean's movies are a popular property now (Was going to say Harry Potter, but there are still two films left.), but will it be in a few years. I'm sure there are better examples but I couldn't think of many from Warner. I loved Gladiator back in the day, but I hardly decide to get it off the shelf and play it now. I still like the film, but there is just so much new stuff I want to keep up with now.

Just my 2 cents.

Krycek

[esc]

If you would have told me two months ago that a studio was going to go HD exclusive and told me to guess, I would have had to say Warner was the most likely choice. It was a real unexpected move for Paramount to suddenly become exclusive. Simply from a production cost view-point, HD is the smarter way to go.

I am really surprised that Disney has not switched over. They have always been about how much money they can make over the quality of their products. I am shocked that they have not gone dual format or dropped Blu Ray all together due to higher production costs. Sony probably did what they always do, and thats talk talk talk talk and make promises with their press releases which got Di$ney to sign on the dotted line.

This whole thing is just reminding me way too much of 1997 and the whole Divx war with Disney and Fox on one side and WB and the others on the other.

[sub780lime]

Originally Posted by venetian blinds

Am I the only person on here that ISNT a millionaire? Even if blu ray won out a few years down the road ( a few years before the next big medium came calling), no way would i dump all my HDDVDs.

Nope. And you do not have to be a millionaire to not dump all your titles. Honestly I think its a really illogical move. If I was willing to buy them on HD I really don't need to upgrade/downgrade(depending on your opinion) if one format wins. Seems like a lot of money down the tube no matter what. Not a very wise investment IMO.

[Ruined]

Popping up again:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=929319

As unlikely as it is, EYECRAVEDVD.COM is claiming that Warner's BDA contract expires on 10/31/07 and that they believe Warner may make a major announcement on Nov 1st - with speculaton being that HD DVD exclusive will be a very possible outcome of that announcement based on the off-the-record comments of WB execs.

[MooglePorn]

I would be very surprised, but then I would have said the same about Paramount before that debacle. Still, all those comments about them being happy as dual-formaters, I would be surprised.

It's a shame incentives are used in this war so much, especially when they turn studios away from the better selling and technically superior format.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by MooglePorn

better selling and technically superior format.

Both debatable

"better selling" - While total discs sold Blu-Ray is outselling HD DVD, in terms of attach rate or discs sold per player, HD DVD is trouncing BD in sales. So, if HD DVD's attach rate remains once the masses buy in HD DVD should be a better selling format on the whole than BD. Studios may not be happy with the massive BD install base buying compartively so few discs per player compared to the smaller HD DVD install base.

"technically superior" - While BD has higher capacity/bandwidth, there have been no examples that have demonstrated this results in higher video quality with nextgen AVC/VC1 codecs - even when the difference is over 10mbps there appears to be little to no gain as I have posted evidence for in other threads. On the other hand, HD DVD functionally is superior to BD and this can easily be seen with many releases - DVD backwards compatibility in software which is nowhere to be seen with BD and HDi interactivity that is much faster and more refined than BD-Java.

Let's not forget price - HD DVD players are nearly half the price of BD players and often have more features despite that. And for studios, discs are cheaper to replicate which can make a big difference when a studio is producing on a big scale.

I think part of the reasons incentives play such a big part in the war is because the formats are so close in features.

[MooglePorn]

Beter selling isn't debateable, BD sells more software by a 2:1 margin. You can't argue with facts.

As for technically superior, I think proof has already been offered of BD's size being an issue. A Clockwork Orange is 2-discs on HD DVD and one on BD. That right there says it all. And before you say "extras on a second disc big whoopie doo" I will just say: Lord of the Rings Extended Editions.

I guess for the two people that like the in-movie crap HD DVD might seem better, but BD-J and such should take care of that.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by MooglePorn

Beter selling isn't debateable, BD sells more software by a 2:1 margin. You can't argue with facts.

You can't argue with facts, and unfortunately you are omitting some of them when BD has a 5:1 hardware ratio to HD DVD. Thus, though BD sells more total software currently, when HD DVD's userbase inevitably grows - if the attach rates remain as they are today - HD DVD will be outselling BD by quite a bit.

As for technically superior, I think proof has already been offered of BD's size being an issue. A Clockwork Orange is 2-discs on HD DVD and one on BD. That right there says it all. And before you say "extras on a second disc big whoopie doo" I will just say: Lord of the Rings Extended Editions.

Extras on a second disc, big whooptie do. Scared about running time? Troy Extended Edition HD DVD. 'nuff said.

I guess for the two people that like the in-movie crap HD DVD might seem better, but BD-J and such should take care of that.

If you don't mind waiting 2 minutes for your standalone to load each movie, and if BD 1.1 players ever come out

[MooglePorn]

Originally Posted by Ruined

You can't argue with facts, and unfortunately you are admitting some of them when BD has a 5:1 hardware ratio to HD DVD. Thus, though BD sells more total software currently, when HD DVD's userbase inevitably grows - if the attach rates remain as they are today - HD DVD will be outselling BD by quite a bit.

You should be a politician.

We should make the DVDFile HD boards a "no spin zone!"

I want to be O'Reily.

Last I heard there were more standalones for HD DVD, so the lower attach rate is impossible since BD sells more, which means you're counting the PS3, which means you're millions of players not used for BD movies. Fail!

As for the rest... yeahokwhatversmallerissomuchbetterHDDVDforthewin and all that.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by MooglePorn

Last I heard there were more standalones for HD DVD, so the lower attach rate is impossible since BD sells more, which means you're counting the PS3, which means you're millions of players not used for BD movies. Fail!

Is it hard to grasp that you can both sell more standalones AND have a smaller install base yet still have higher attach rate?

Its quite simple:
1. HD DVD sells more standalones than BD
2. BD sells more HDM-enabled game consoles (PS3) than HD DVD (360 HDAO). These are not considered standalones (just like the PS2/XBOX1 weren't considered DVD standalones) because their primary purpose is games, not movies.
3. The number of devices sold in point #2 are greater than the number sold in #1 at this point in time (~5:1)
4. The total number of BD movies sold is greater than HD DVD currently (~2:1)
5. However, per player the number of movies sold on HD DVD is much greater than BD (compare statistics of point #3 and #4).

The most obvious conclusion is that on average PS3 owners, which makes up the bulk of the BD install base advantage over HD DVD, don't buy as many movies on average as HD DVD standalone owners. However, the number of PS3 owners is currently much greater than HD DVD standalone owners - of course if HDM is to take off this will not be the condition in the long term, and this may be what some studios are eyeballing.

[187ontheVHS]

Originally Posted by Ruined

If you don't mind waiting 2 minutes for your standalone to load each movie, and if BD 1.1 players ever come out

Kinda like the 10 minutes I waited to watch Knocked Up.....on HD DVD?
Now I just remove the ethernet cable from my player when I watch an HD DVD, that's pretty handy.
"HD DVD: More consumer-friendlier!" indeed

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by 187ontheVHS

Kinda like the 10 minutes I waited to watch Knocked Up.....on HD DVD?
Now I just remove the ethernet cable from my player when I watch an HD DVD, that's pretty handy.
"HD DVD: More consumer-friendlier!" indeed

Knocked up took less than 20 seconds to load for me (Toshiba HD-A35 & XBOX 360 HDAO). If it takes 10 minutes then (assuming you have latest FW) you need to clear your player's persistent storage as it sounds corrupt.

[187ontheVHS]

Originally Posted by Ruined

Knocked up took less than 20 seconds to load for me (Toshiba HD-A35 & XBOX 360 HDAO). If it takes 10 minutes then you need to clear your player's persistent storage as it sounds corrupt.

Oh ok, cool, will I have to defrag the memory too or anything? So far I haven't had to do a SINGLE THING with my BD player, whereas my HD DVD player seems to make me jump through a new hoop every other month. Still better for the consumer though...right?