Report Predicts Blu-ray, HD DVD to Co-Exist

[Pirate]

I hesitate to post this, but...

A new report examining the evolution of the high-def market predicts both next-gen disc formats are here to stay, and that most studios are likely to end up supporting both formats.

Released today by UK-based media analysts Screen Digest, the report includes detailed forecasts of consumer sales and revenues in the US and Europe for both new video formats through 2011, with each predicted to establish a viable installed base.

The report goes on to calculate that format-exclusive studios could be missing out on significant revenues, potentially eschewing over $270 million in consumer spending over 2008 alone. With so much at stake, Screen Digest expects several single-format studios to reassess their positions in 2008.

Although Paramount's recent decision to exclusively support HD DVD would seem to undermine the report's prediction, Screen Digest says that the move effectively secured HD DVD's immediate future, and cleared the way for the other studios that currently support one platform only to move to an agnostic position without being perceived as the studio solely responsible for prolonging a format war, or for killing off one of the formats.

"Christmas 2007 is going to be critical for the hi-def video business," said Richard Cooper, Screen Digest Video Analyst. "Both formats will be seeking to secure consumer buy-in to their proposition during the critical holiday season but with so much at stake on both sides we think it is highly unlikely that one format will emerge as the 'winner.'

"Once it becomes clear that both formats are gaining customer acceptance, studios that have chosen to support one format over the other will realize that they are missing out on potential sales and will have to decide how long they can afford to place principle over profit."

"We believe that eventually most will decide to offer their titles on both HD DVD and Blu-ray in order to maximize their returns."

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...o_Co-Exist/971

[Ruined]

I'd be very satisfied with the predicted results offered by this article

[sub780lime]

If all studios were dual format, would HD-DVD sales increase to margin above Blu-ray, because of potentially cheaper hardware. Or, by the time this happens, will most hardware be of a comparable price?

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by sub780lime

If all studios were dual format, would HD-DVD sales increase to margin above Blu-ray, because of potentially cheaper hardware. Or, by the time this happens, will most hardware be of a comparable price?

BD uses fundamentally more expensive parts than HD DVD. I don't see them being on equal price footing anytime in the next 5 years - if BD gets cheaper, HD DVD will get cheaper, too.

BD needs an extra lens that is much more expensive to manufacture than HD DVD's lens (same lens used in an SD DVD player), and BD will always need the equivalent of both the lens used in an HD DVD player (to play standard DVDs) as well as the BD lens order to function. So even if that lens becomes somewhat cheaper to make, BD players will need the equivalent of 2 lenses while HD DVD only needs 1.

Also, HD DVD players can additionally be cheaper as the spec only requires 1080i60 output - BD's spec requires 1080p60 which requires additional processing and output circuitry. While the argument could be made that HD DVD requiring DD+/THD/DTS-HD decoding in hardware offsets this cost, that argument is weak because the dual-format chipsets that power most of the latest HD DVD & BD players (i.e. BCM7440) has that capability builtin anyway; therefore BD will likely incur the cost of builtin audio decoders as a result of it being part of HD DVD's mandatory spec and hence incorporated into the very same dual-format chipsets that are at the heart of BD-only players.

[ganthc]

I think that this foregoes the fact that Sony will never relinquish its Columbia Tristar/Sony Pictures catalog titles to hd-dvd as long as blu-ray is a viable format. HD-DVD fans will still not be able to get those titles. The same might be true for Universal, but perhaps not. That said, the success of bd+ is also a consideration and how that impacts Fox. If it is a failure, Fox will have no real incentive to stay with blu-ray. If it is successful, then no studio would give up content protection in order to expose their losses to hd-dvd, a format that would be unprotected.

I think Q4 will be a deciding factor for both formats. HD-DVD has cheaper players, but still lacks a content advantage. Winning Disney or Warner would be enough to secure the report's predictions, but as long as blu-ray is functioning, Sony's movies are off limits to hd-dvd fans.

[Taxi]

Originally Posted by ganthc

That said, the success of bd+ is also a consideration and how that impacts Fox. If it is a failure, Fox will have no real incentive to stay with blu-ray. If it is successful, then no studio would give up content protection in order to expose their losses to hd-dvd, a format that would be unprotected.

Unprotected? Isn't that overstating it just a bit? HD-DVD still has AACS, which will deter most "casual" copying, even with "09 F9" being known.

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by Taxi

Unprotected? Isn't that overstating it just a bit? HD-DVD still has AACS, which will deter most "casual" copying, even with "09 F9" being known.

Not necessarily if bd+ works. In that instance, the hd content would not be available via download. Meanwhile, you could get hd-dvd content via download from those that are not casual copiers. If bd+ doesn't work, then both formats are in the same boat.

[venetian blinds]

I started downloading an HD movie once, but frankly it takes too damn long, takes too much space, and it might not be the top quality presentation im looking for if im bothering to watch a movie in HD. A dvd presentation is more than sufficient if all im looking to do is catch a movie from the net. I'm willing to bet most people who download something only to watch it in the near future are like-minded, as opposed to those who download for the sake of collecting. I remember one fellow who had one internet line and comp and hordes of hard disks devoted 24/7 to sucking content from the net, even though he didnt actually watch most of the stuff. I suspect those people are a small minority. By the time net speeds and disk space and so on come around to making
HD an easier download, the Next Big Thing im sure will be here.

[dugpa]

Sony will never change as long as blu-ray is around since they have a vested interest in the format. Fox will never change because of BD+. After all, they think it's so important that they actually stopped releasing titles on BD until it was ready. They're too paranoid to accept the protection HD-DVD offers, since they wouldn't accept it for the format they already support.
You never know about the other studios. But honestly, I suspect the players are pretty well set in stone for a good while now.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by ganthc

Not necessarily if bd+ works. In that instance, the hd content would not be available via download. Meanwhile, you could get hd-dvd content via download from those that are not casual copiers. If bd+ doesn't work, then both formats are in the same boat.

Slysoft is estimating that they will completely crack BD+ in under 90 days.

[videoworx]

BD+ will be cracked far more quickly than that. Regardless, most consumers (especially ones that do not frequent forums like this) won't ever pirate HD-DVDs and BDs (whether for ethical reasons, or they simply don't want to use a computer).

I've been reading quite a bit about BD+, and its managed copy protection potential looks great. The ability to easily (and legally) copy content to a media player/home server looks appealing - even if it does mean the movie distributors will want to charge extra for that feature. Does AACS offer anything like this?

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by Ruined

Slysoft is estimating that they will completely crack BD+ in under 90 days.

I guess we'll see. But isn't the benefit of bd+ that if it is cracked that it's only for that one machine. Thus copying the content and trying to send it off elsewhere will incur the countermeasures that you so fear? It will be interesting to see how this bd+ crack works.

[dugpa]

Originally Posted by videoworx

BD+ will be cracked far more quickly than that. Regardless, most consumers (especially ones that do not frequent forums like this) won't ever pirate HD-DVDs and BDs (whether for ethical reasons, or they simply don't want to use a computer).

It's not the actual amount of pirating done that's the problem, it's the paranoia of the studios over how much they think is done. After all, there really was no easy way to copy Blu-ray discs when AACS was broken for blu-ray, but that didn't stop Fox from completely halting releases and waiting for BD+. How many blu-ray discs have really been pirated since AACS was broken? Anyone know anyone who's copied blu-ray discs? I'll bet not. There's very little if any pirating going on with the HD formats. But studios are paranoid and that's enough to cause them to make irrational decisions. They don't live in reality, they live in a world where each and every one of us is not a potential customer, but a potential thief.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by ganthc

I guess we'll see. But isn't the benefit of bd+ that if it is cracked that it's only for that one machine. Thus copying the content and trying to send it off elsewhere will incur the countermeasures that you so fear? It will be interesting to see how this bd+ crack works.

No, because if BD+ is cracked, its cracked. First of all, if its cracked a BD player shouldn't know the difference between it and a homemade movie.

Second, you don't have to worry about "countermeasures" because a pirate will simply be able to transcode/reauthor the encode to HD DVD and play it in an HD DVD player which does not have BD+

What I would be more concerned about if BD+ is cracked is the introduction of BD+ trojans/worms as BD+ gives the player software the power to run executables on your computer without your consent.

[chlngr1970]

Originally Posted by Ruined

What I would be more concerned about if BD+ is cracked is the introduction of BD+ trojans/worms as BD+ gives the player software the power to run executables on your computer without your consent.

Honestly, if this happened, I would say serves you right! I have no interest in pirating movies, and have a bit of a problem with people that do. I still believe that studios are far to paranoid about it tho...

j

[sub780lime]

Originally Posted by chlngr1970

Honestly, if this happened, I would say serves you right! I have no interest in pirating movies, and have a bit of a problem with people that do. I still believe that studios are far to paranoid about it tho...

j

Yeah, but it does introduce the possibility of something like that being passed over internet, passed off as part of a firmware upgrade.

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by sub780lime

Yeah, but it does introduce the possibility of something like that being passed over internet, passed off as part of a firmware upgrade.

If it's the ps3, the firmware updates don't come via a website. If you are referring to other bd players, those updates should only come from the manufacturer's website or via disc. Getting firmware from other locations would be dangerous even without bd+.

[sub780lime]

Originally Posted by ganthc

If it's the ps3, the firmware updates don't come via a website. If you are referring to other bd players, those updates should only come from the manufacturer's website or via disc. Getting firmware from other locations would be dangerous even without bd+.

Since you can get them as ISO I do imagine false sites, false emails with links to supposed firmware updates as ISO, etc etc. It could potentially be a problem.

[chlngr1970]

Originally Posted by sub780lime

Since you can get them as ISO I do imagine false sites, false emails with links to supposed firmware updates as ISO, etc etc. It could potentially be a problem.

That gives me an idea...

Anyway...I don't se THAT being the issue, so much as if a "cracked" copy of a Blu Ray title having some "bad bugs" in the ISO, then when someone does download it, it kills his player/PC.

j

[plissken99]

Originally Posted by Ruined

Second, you don't have to worry about "countermeasures" because a pirate will simply be able to transcode/reauthor the encode to HD DVD and play it in an HD DVD player which does not have BD+

I would laugh myself silly if all exclusive BD content was available on HD-DVD in bootleg form. Course they'll have to re-author the discs(i.e DVD Shrink), as some BDs do use more than 30GB.

[pizza]

Originally Posted by Ruined

Also, HD DVD players can additionally be cheaper as the spec only requires 1080i60 output

That's disappointing news.

[Dogg]

Originally Posted by pizza

That's disappointing news.

It shouldn't be...you still have choice to buy the player that supports 1080p. The point being that the base model can be cheaper, which gets the players into a lower price point to attract new customers.

Most of us video enthusiasts don't purchase the base model players anyway.

[Ruined]

Originally Posted by plissken99

I would laugh myself silly if all exclusive BD content was available on HD-DVD in bootleg form. Course they'll have to re-author the discs(i.e DVD Shrink), as some BDs do use more than 30GB.

That is actually the most likely case scenario, once authoring/transcoding tools become more widespread. In addition to what I mentioned above, though, HD DVD is also essentially the format of choice for China - king of bootlegs.

[pizza]

Originally Posted by Dogg

Most of us video enthusiasts don't purchase the base model players anyway.

Very true.

[videoworx]

Originally Posted by Ruined

That is actually the most likely case scenario, once authoring/transcoding tools become more widespread. In addition to what I mentioned above, though, HD DVD is also essentially the format of choice for China - king of bootlegs.

In addition, Toshiba would also have to release a working HD-DVD burner/recorder. The current ones produce error rates that far exceed the HD-DVD spec (resulting in discs that won't play in any HD-DVD player). Even if you don't read German, you can see how badly the discs perform right now (the straight red line indicates the HD-DVD peak tolerance level for errors):