Fourth Quarter Fervor

[Wilson]

Originally Posted by Iguana Man

the gains of SD DVD over VHS were tenfold versus the gains currently with HD over SD DVD. At least that's the way I see it. Meaning, JSP ain't gonna budge for a much longer time, and thus 2 yrs is small potatoes. I see 5 or more years.

Ya, I think your bang on.

From the JSP perspective DVD had a few things going for it that HD does not.

DVD Pros for JSP
1) The general public already knew that a disc is a much better medium than tape because of the jump to CD's from cassettes. Rewinding, instant access, degradation etc..
2) The difference in sound and video quality was stunning
3) Extra features
4) Smaller footprint
5) any TV set would work

HD Pros for JSP
1) Marginal increase in quality (relative to VHS/DVD) that is imperceptible on most people’s equipment.

[Derb]

Counting everything,

3,350,000 million HD DVD + BD players are in homes.

Cause prices are rapidly decreasing on all hardware aspects, I see the adoption rate of HD much better than DVD. Than factor in the digital broadcast deadline. Once that happens, you think people will want to see there favourite tv shows looking better than their favourite movies?.. well not in america.

[biglyle]

Originally Posted by Derb

Counting everything,

3,350,000 million HD DVD + BD players are in homes.

Cause prices are rapidly decreasing on all hardware aspects, I see the adoption rate of HD much better than DVD. Than factor in the digital broadcast deadline. Once that happens, you think people will want to see there favourite tv shows looking better than their favourite movies?.. well not in america.

or Canada

[elfman]

Originally Posted by Derb

3,350,000 million HD DVD + BD players are in homes.

Holy crap! 3.35 million million!?! That would mean about 504 HD players for every single person in the world. (Hope Netflix can keep up.)

That's amazing!!!

[biglyle]

Originally Posted by elfman

Holy crap! 3.35 million million!?! That would mean about 504 HD players for every single person in the world. (Hope Netflix can keep up.)

That's amazing!!!

Dammit, I'm 3 short (races to best buy)

[Derb]

Only 350K if you don't count my home.

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by chlngr1970

See, BD fans don't like to hear about all the PS3s sold when you talk about attach rates, but man do they like to crow about hw advantage...

j

Actually, I prefer consistency. If you want to count all the ps3's as bd players, then yes, the attach rate is very low. I'm fine with that. What gets me is when hd-dvd fans want to say, "count all the ps3 for attach rate, but don't count them for hw numbers." To me, you can't have both.

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by reapersaurus

It seems obvious to me that a device who's sole function is to play HD-DVD's (this hda0 or whatever you're calling it) should be counted as a HDDVD player.
Similarly, using common sense as the decider, a device who's prime function is to play console games (PS3) should not be counted as a BR player.

Well, the issue is standalone versus non-standalone players. Toshiba standalones outsell bd standalones. The hda0 cannot just be hooked up to your TV and play movies. It has to either be hooked up to the 360, or it has to be linked into a laptop. The ps3 however can be hooked up to your TV and play movies, but it is a game console. If you want to look at standalone only, you don't count the hda0 (which hd-dvd hadn't until recently). If you want to count all players, then you can count the hda0, but you also count the ps3 as well.

Furthermore, I think you all should be embarrassed at the pathetic rate of adoption of this technology.

Why should we be embarrassed? We're enjoying movies in HD. Also, when dvd started out, it didn't need brand new hardware to enjoy it. You hooked it up to your TV and it worked. With HD, you need to have an HDTV, and if you want advanced audio codecs, an hdmi receiver. The rate of adoption considering the population of people that have hdtv's and know what they are doing with it is actually on a good increase.

Most studios see HDM as a growth market, and that's why you are seeing lots of new releases all being put out on HDM. There's nothing at all to be "embarrassed" about there, from either hd-dvd or blu-ray fans.

[jbat31]

Originally Posted by Derb

Counting everything,

3,350,000 million HD DVD + BD players are in homes.

Cause prices are rapidly decreasing on all hardware aspects, I see the adoption rate of HD much better than DVD. Than factor in the digital broadcast deadline. Once that happens, you think people will want to see there favourite tv shows looking better than their favourite movies?.. well not in america.

I recently read that the hardware is being bougth, but not the software. In dvd's first years the attach rate was 8.5 per player, but now it is about 3 per player. This means that many are buying hardwar butiether choosing to still buy sd or not rebuy their movies again on hd

[chlngr1970]

Originally Posted by ganthc

Actually, I prefer consistency. If you want to count all the ps3's as bd players, then yes, the attach rate is very low. I'm fine with that. What gets me is when hd-dvd fans want to say, "count all the ps3 for attach rate, but don't count them for hw numbers." To me, you can't have both.

You and I agree on that. I have no problem with BD having more HW in the field counting the PS3. SA sales are almost abysmal, and I believe it is due to price.

Originally Posted by ganthc

Well, the issue is standalone versus non-standalone players. Toshiba standalones outsell bd standalones. The hda0 cannot just be hooked up to your TV and play movies. It has to either be hooked up to the 360, or it has to be linked into a laptop. The ps3 however can be hooked up to your TV and play movies, but it is a game console. If you want to look at standalone only, you don't count the hda0 (which hd-dvd hadn't until recently). If you want to count all players, then you can count the hda0, but you also count the ps3 as well.

The problem, ganthc, is that the HDAO has no other use. If a person buys an HDAO, it is bought for the sole purpose of watching HD DVDs. If people were trying to say that if you bought an Xbox 360 to watch HDM, that would be analagous to every PS3 being counted as a Blu Ray player, when in fact it is not the case. There is NO OTHER USE for the HDAO, simple.

Most studios see HDM as a growth market, and that's why you are seeing lots of new releases all being put out on HDM. There's nothing at all to be "embarrassed" about there, from either hd-dvd or blu-ray fans.

I agree with this assessment as well. When the HD HW penatration is much higher, there will be a much higher rate of HDM being sold.

j

PS, no spell check on this computer, so

j

[Mr. Furious]

Originally Posted by chlngr1970

You and I agree on that. I have no problem with BD having more HW in the field counting the PS3. SA sales are almost abysmal, and I believe it is due to price.

That might be part of it. But I think it also has to do with the fact that the ps3 is not only a good BD player, it's probably the best BD player. It's also the only one that has any shot of being upgraded to a profile 2.0 player. When people discount the PS3 as a bd player, I think they're deluding themselves. Yeah, there are a number of people out there that bought it only for games, but let's not forget that there are a number of people who bought it only for movies.

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by Mr. Furious

That might be part of it. But I think it also has to do with the fact that the ps3 is not only a good BD player, it's probably the best BD player. It's also the only one that has any shot of being upgraded to a profile 2.0 player. When people discount the PS3 as a bd player, I think they're deluding themselves. Yeah, there are a number of people out there that bought it only for games, but let's not forget that there are a number of people who bought it only for movies.

Agreed. For the record, I am not discounting the hda0 at all as a player or am I not against counting it in hw numbers. But it is not a standalone player. The ps3 at this point is the best player out there for blu-ray, unless the Samsung dual player happens to somehow be better, but even if it is, it still doesn't have the same capability nor will it have wireless.

[Daze]

Why not just count software sales. That eliminates any dispute over what is and what is not a player.

Toshiba is supposed to be switching all of their laptops over to HD-DVD. If movie sales went up as a result, how could you ignore the laptops?

[sub780lime]

Originally Posted by Daze

Why not just count software sales. That eliminates any dispute over what is and what is not a player.

Toshiba is supposed to be switching all of their laptops over to HD-DVD. If movie sales went up as a result, how could you ignore the laptops?

Without HW sales you cannot determine an attach rate and many people want to base everything on the attach rate.

[ganthc]

Well, it is important to look at the hardware sales to see which area has growth potential for studios to sell movies to. I think both sides would argue that they have done a good job of selling their players. There is still a chance that the hd-a2 effect will happen and spur lots of growth in sales. I'm also curious how the samsung player at $270 is doing sales-wise and how that will affect sw sales.

[elfman]

Originally Posted by ganthc

There is still a chance that the hd-a2 effect will happen and spur lots of growth in sales.

Yeah, I there will be a bump in Jan, since I think a lot of those A2s are wrapped up under Christmas trees right now.

[chlngr1970]

Originally Posted by ganthc

Agreed. For the record, I am not discounting the hda0 at all as a player or am I not against counting it in hw numbers. But it is not a standalone player.

What other purpose does the HDAO serve? The only thing you can do with it is watch movies. Why is that such a hard concept? Why does it matter how you attach it to the TV?

[ganthc]

Originally Posted by chlngr1970

What other purpose does the HDAO serve? The only thing you can do with it is watch movies. Why is that such a hard concept? Why does it matter how you attach it to the TV?

Why does it matter that the ps3 may not play movies all the time? If we are defining categories for players, then the term stand-alone means that on its own it can play hd-dvds or blu-rays without accessories. The ps3 is more of a standalone than the hda0 is. I just think its self-serving for hd-dvd fans to say that the hda0 is more credible as a player than the ps3 is. The concept of it not being a standalone isn't hard. The concept that it can play hd-dvds when hooked up to a 360 or a laptop isn't hard either. But neither is the fact that the ps3 comes installed with a bd drive and is in fact a bd player. Many on the hd-dvd side will discount it because they can't be sure it is being used for that, when the reality is that every ps3 is bd-capable, and all come with the same free movies deal that hd-dvd players and standalone bd players come with. Really the quibbling comes from the hd-dvd fans that don't know what to do with the ps3. For me, I consider all players (laptops, consoles, or settop boxes) as valid. If they are capable of playing hdm, then they should be included in counts. It's the hd-dvd side that likes to bicker about whether they count or not, unless it's dealing with attachment rates, in which case they do count.

[chlngr1970]

The PS3 is a game console. One feature of that game console is that it plays Blu Ray Discs. It's primary function is a GAME CONSOLE. IF the Xbox 360 had an HD DVD drive, I would agree with you, but since there is no other use for the HDAO, it can ONLY PLAY HD DVDS. Simple logic realy, HDAO = HD DVD Player. PS3 = Gaming Console/Media Server/Web Browser/BRD Player.

I give up.

j

[videoworx]

What Ganthc is saying is that the HD Drive for the Xbox is a drive in an external enclosure - utterly useless without an Xbox or Windows PC (ergo, it isn't a standalone device, it's just like a HD-DVD drive in a laptop).

The PS3 is a media center (as Sony puts it), which has a built-in ability to play Blu-Ray movies - much like a HTPC can play Blu-Ray movies and games.

Just because person x bought a PS3 to play games, doesn't mean he won't decide to buy Blu-Ray movies when he upgrades his TV next year (which is what Sony is betting on). PS3 owners are all potential Blu-Ray movie customers - and it will be up to the studios to convince them that DVDs aren't good enough anymore.

[chlngr1970]

Originally Posted by videoworx

What Ganthc is saying is that the HD Drive for the Xbox is a drive in an external enclosure - utterly useless without an Xbox or Windows PC (ergo, it isn't a standalone device, it's just like a HD-DVD drive in a laptop).

Which has nothing to do with why someone would buy/use it.

Originally Posted by videoworx

The PS3 is a media center (as Sony puts it), which has a built-in ability to play Blu-Ray movies - much like a HTPC can play Blu-Ray movies and games.

Of which about 17% use for Blu Ray playback, and others might use it, but who knows.

Originally Posted by videoworx

Just because person x bought a PS3 to play games, doesn't mean he won't decide to buy Blu-Ray movies when he upgrades his TV next year (which is what Sony is betting on). PS3 owners are all potential Blu-Ray movie customers - and it will be up to the studios to convince them that DVDs aren't good enough anymore.

Potential is a good thing for fledgling technology.

Let me ask you this. If you were selling a technology, which would you rather be behind? The technology that might be used ( Blu Ray/PS3 ) or the tech that has no other purpose ( HDAO )?

j

[videoworx]

If you were selling a technology, which would you rather be behind? The technology that might be used ( Blu Ray/PS3 ) or the tech that has no other purpose ( HDAO )?

The technology is being used. PS3 games are distributed on Blu-Ray media, so the drive serves a purpose beyond movie playback. Just like DVD, Blu-Ray exists in all facets of media acquisition and distribution. Unlike HD DVD, which exists solely as a movie distribution method.

With that in mind, I could not sell a technology that has no other outlet. If Blu-Ray fails as a movie distribution format, it will live on as a data storage format, a PS3 game format, and a video camera recording format (and potentially other products in the future). If HD DVD fails as a movie distribution format, it's gone forever. Toshiba has spent 2 years trying to make HD DVD recorders/burners, and they can't get them to work properly. And because Toshiba, figuratively speaking, stabbed 3 major CE companies in the back when the DVD format was finalized, they aren't getting any help to extend the format into other areas. Chinese companies can't help Toshiba with R&D, only mass production.

At this point in time, the innovation lies with Blu-Ray. To me, it's the format with the potential to knock DVD (the technology, not the movie format) on its ass. It won't happen tomorrow, or even next year, but it will happen.
HD DVD, on the other hand, is the "laserdisc" format. It's perfectly adequate for the purpose it serves, but it will never expand into other areas, as DVD did.

[Derb]

Sinse when did the PS3 have game playback capabilities? Wow, I didn't know I could play games too! Sweet.

[chlngr1970]

Originally Posted by videoworx

Toshiba has spent 2 years trying to make HD DVD recorders/burners, and they can't get them to work properly.

Then I guess they need to cancle the HD DVD recorder due out in Japan then?

Originally Posted by videoworx

And because Toshiba, figuratively speaking, stabbed 3 major CE companies in the back when the DVD format was finalized, they aren't getting any help to extend the format into other areas.

???

Originally Posted by videoworx

At this point in time, the innovation lies with Blu-Ray. To me, it's the format with the potential to knock DVD (the technology, not the movie format) on its ass. It won't happen tomorrow, or even next year, but it will happen.
HD DVD, on the other hand, is the "laserdisc" format. It's perfectly adequate for the purpose it serves, but it will never expand into other areas, as DVD did.

Is it inovative? Maybe, but so was the Minidisc, and Betamax, and Memroystick. Sony is famous for creating formats that fail. If that was all that Blu Ray has against it, I could probably overlook it. With it's anti consumer stance, high cost, lack of set standard, and questionable business practices ( Yes, the way a company does business influences how I buy ), I can't get behind it

j