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#1 (permalink) |
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Actor
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: UK
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The state of HD-DVD
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/the-state...dvd-330684.php
Where Blu-ray is a freight train of unrivaled weight and marketing might, backed by 13 of the world's most well known electronics and computer makers, HD DVD is a Little Engine That Could, the product of a much smaller group of collaborators that has gotten over each obstacle by simply thinking it can. Judging from early buzz, HD DVD should have been beaten long ago. Today, though, it appears healthy and gaining in momentum thanks to lower prices, less confusion about disc standards, less in-fighting among the format's supporters and a high likelihood of cheap Chinese models arriving soon. This piece answers the following questions: How in hell has the HD DVD camp lasted this long? And how will the format's backers stay competitive in the next year in the face of cheaper and more plentiful Blu-ray players? In my recent research into the two sides of the format war, I have tried hard to steer clear of marketing mumbo jumbo on both sides, and examine real issues. As I shared in The State of Blu-ray, there's growing disarray among Blu-ray's hardware makers and confusion about hardware versions and player capabilities. HD DVD has by contrast proven to be surprisingly elegant—at the moment best demonstrated by comparing both versions of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. There's far less confusion and potential backstabbing, but that is to be expected: There are only two household names leading the charge on the hardware side, Toshiba and Microsoft, and they are not engaged in any sort of infighting. Toshiba was one of the companies most involved with the original DVD patents, and creating HD DVD as a blue-laser extension of DVD made good business sense, though not to Sony and others who were left out of that revenue stream. Regardless of its strong roots, HD DVD is run by a smaller posse with less overall reach, so keeping things clear and tight amounts to a survival tactic. HD DVD has three things going for it that Blu-ray doesn't: 1. Players at lower prices There's no doubt that price is the deciding factor in an embarrassing number of consumer-electronics purchases, and HD DVD—Toshiba's players—have been priced lower than Blu-ray players from Sony, Samsung, Pioneer and others. At the beginning of November, Wal-Mart dropped the entry-level Toshiba to $99 and apparently sold around 90,000. 2. A finished spec with fully compatible players Whereas Blu-ray bewilders me with future capability promises and current competing standards, the HD DVD spec is by contrast remarkably sound. Every player meets certain standards, and while there's no requirement for 1080p video like in Blu-ray, there is a consistent requirement of internet connectivity, dual-tuner playback and local storage, which disc makers are now using for fun—and useful—interactivity. It is also becoming typical for combo discs to be released with DVD on one side and HD DVD on the other, making them eminently more compatible. (Blu-ray can't do this.) 3. Coalition members who are not in direct competition It's easy for the HD DVD camp to work together, since there are very few who have traditionally competed in the marketplace. Because of pricing and product positioning, Toshiba and Microsoft don't vie for the same customers at all. And as others begin to market HD DVD players of their own, they approach different customers in different ways. Of course, you could argue that competition among Blu-ray's supporters is a good thing, but it has not yet led to the holy grail of competition: discounted pricing. Who is joining HD DVD? Many people can name five hardware partners in the Blu-ray camp (Hint: if they start with P or S, they're in). Nobody knows who else is getting into HD DVD besides its main founders, Toshiba and Microsoft, but in fact, other HD DVD players are already starting to hit the market. Here are three key players: • Onkyo DV-HD805 ($900): distingushing characteristics include a Silicon Optix HQV Reon VX processor for upscaling old-school DVD content, and internal support for Dolby True HD and DTS Master HD Audio for natively outputting full-resolution sound. It's certainly a tweaker's special, and only makes sense if your speakers cost much much more. • Samsung BD-UP5000 Duo ($800): Since this upcoming device famously has stated support for Blu-ray discs that Sony and Pioneer won't be able to play, it's easy to forget that it's also billed as a fully compliant HD DVD player. But the reviews say it's a winner in both arenas. • Venturer SHD7000 player ($200): Who? Exactly. That's what they said about Apex Digital when it came out with the super cheap DVD player. Venturer is living up to its name as the first cheap Chinese player to infiltrate American retailers but signs say it will not be the last. What about Microsoft? Microsoft's role in HD DVD may seem a bit mysterious. Besides selling the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on drive, Microsoft helped write the HD DVD video spec, including VC-1 compression. It also licenses the HDi runtime engine, developed with Toshiba, that enables interactivity on Toshiba players and those of other licensees. HD DVD players don't have to have HDi, but at the moment, it's obviously the software with the most momentum. And software is the key to HD DVD's current successes. Toshiba's HD-A1 and HD-XA1 players, rolled out first in the spring of 2006, were based on a 2.4GHz Pentium PC architecture, in other words, real hogs. The second generation players were moving on a 900MHz Celeron, and the third-generation HD-A3 has a 333MHz MIPS chip. The funny thing is, menus move quicker on the much more affordable third gen, because of Microsoft's improvements on the back end. In a tear-down evaluation, industrial analyst iSuppli determined that the components of that first $599 Toshiba player actually cost the maker $674 before manufacturing, accessories and packaging. Though neither Microsoft nor Toshiba would acknowledge any losses, Kevin Collins, head of HD DVD promotion for Microsoft, said, "I don't know if they are losing money or breaking even," adding, "We work together to minimize cost." Jodi Sally, VP of marketing at Toshiba America Consumer Products, echoed: "All of this speculation that we're losing money is just speculation," she said. Working with Microsoft, "we've transitioned our lines three times to lower costs. I can't comment on profitability, but we have increased cost production and efficiency." So whether you are using a Toshiba player or an Xbox 360, you are watching HD DVDs using a hardware/operating-system combo developed in large part by Microsoft. Given the fact that Microsoft isn't always known for stable and intuitive user experiences, it is even more amusing to see Blu-ray and HD DVD side by side. Compare One Movie on Both Formats When I compared Warner's Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix discs, the Blu-ray edition in a PS3 and the HD DVD in an Xbox 360, the differences were startling. Never mind that the HD DVD has an entire online component that the Blu-ray can't yet implement, with features such as mobile downloads and user-organized live screenings. Never mind that you could watch the entire HD DVD with pop-up actor-commentary windows on screen—if Warner had implemented this in the Harry Potter Blu-ray, it would have been compatible with exactly one currently shipping Blu-ray player. The surprising thing was, even when you compared the exact same experiences, the HD DVD behaved much better. Every so often an icon appears in the top left corner of the screen, indicating a behind-the-scenes featurette about that particular scene. On the HD DVD, you click it, watch what you want to, then click Enter again to return to the point you left off in the main movie. With the Blu-ray, the system had no way of returning you to the movie; it could only dump you in the featurette menu, where you were stuck watching more of those. Sure, these problems could be Warner's programmers, and not a format issue, but Warner is going for as similar an experience on both, and it clearly can't do everything on Blu-ray that it can on HD DVD. Just have a look at the back of each disc: Harry_Potter_Comparison.jpg The difference is still less subtle when comparing the two editions of 300: 300_Disc_Comparison.jpg As I discussed previously, Blu-ray has specifications for picture-in-picture, but to date, only one Blu-ray player that has shipped, the Panasonic DMP-BD30, will be able to handle the discs when they start making their way to stores in early 2008. Except for some rumblings from Daewoo, nobody has promised an internet-connected Blu-ray player, while all HD DVD players can. (Samsung's hybrid BD-UP5000 Duo has Ethernet, but only for HD DVD.) The Hollywood Factor Studio support was once Blu-ray's ace in the hole—none of this technical crap matters when the movies you want to watch aren't available in a given format—but ever since Paramount and DreamWorks announced exclusive publishing on HD DVD, even Sony chairman Howard Stringer feels a bit shaken. (Fox, Disney, Sony and others are still Blu-ray stalwarts of course.) Some say there's dirty dealing afoot, specifically alleging that Microsoft and the HD DVD group paid $150 million or so to Paramount and DreamWorks to go exclusive. When Michael Bay made these bribery accusations again the other day, along with the accusation that Microsoft was using HD DVD to destabilize Blu-ray in favor of downloads, Jordi Ribas, GM of the HD DVD Group at Microsoft responded: Microsoft provided no financial incentives to Paramount or DreamWorks. Michael Bay's additional comments about our commitment to HD DVD are similarly unfounded. We have major technology investments in HD DVD...and have more than 100 staff at Microsoft dedicated to the success of HD DVD. The China Factor People who are looking to Hollywood to determine the fate of the format war may well be looking in the wrong place. China is where HD DVD's secret to success lies, in a blue-laser format called CH-DVD. The not-so-secret secret is that a CH-DVD player is an HD DVD player whose laser is set at a different modulation. While you could never play an HD DVD on a CH-DVD player, it is physically more or less the same product. Manufacturing can happen side by side, using the same components such as processors and optical pick-ups. The funny thing is, HD DVD is known to be region-free—discs from one country can play in HD DVD players from another country. Many discs available on Blu-ray in the US are available on HD DVD elsewhere, making for a higher chance of piracy or at least quasi-legal trade. In our mind, CH-DVD can be an answer to that, an anti-piracy measure coming from a root technological difference. "I guess you could call it a region control," said Collins, "but the Chinese just want to have their own format." Whether this separate-but-equal policy helps the format burgeon, or whether rampant piracy itself is a sign of a healthy format, is for us all to find out. The upshot of CH-DVD is that, if and when the time is right, China could flood the US market with cheap HD DVD players. Meanwhile, because of this deal, the likelihood of a similar Blu-ray flood gets slimmer. The Venturer is here; keep your eyes peeled at Wal-Mart, Target and other discount big boxes for the next models. Does the China threat faze Toshiba? It's nice being the one in the spotlight, but Toshiba is well aware that it will soon share the stage with competitors. "There's always a business for a Tier 1 brand in HD DVD players the way there is with DVD players," says Sally. Increased competition will come at the higher end, with combo players from Samsung, LG and possibly Denon, and the premium Onkyo I mentioned above. All of this is good news to Toshiba. Sally adds, "Increasing household penetration of HD DVD players is good overall for the format and for the software [movie] sales." Black Friday Stalemate On Black Friday 2007, both the Blu-ray and HD DVD camps released numbers saying they were the overwhelming winner. HD DVD announced it had reached 750,000 in total home penetration (including the Xbox 360 drive). Blu-ray said that it had 2.4 million homes, presumably including PS3. Microsoft argues that all Xbox 360 HD DVD drive purchasers are using them to play HD DVD movies, while not all PS3 buyers are using the game system to play Blu-ray discs. While this is obviously true, there is only unreliable guess work to determine exactly how successful the PS3's Blu-ray drive actually is. The point is, the format war is far from over, and it's wrong to write off HD DVD now just because it has fewer major japanese manufacturing giants 100% behind it. There's still some time before this whole thing shakes out, but because of the organization and proper planning of the HD DVD camp, Blu-ray no longer looks anything like the predestined victor that it once seemed. |
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#2 (permalink) |
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Producer/Admin
Tenacious "OB" Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Spanaway Washington
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Lots of good points in there, but some will find fault with it, citing phony numbers and what have you that the BDA is famous for releasing...
j
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"The greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love, and be loved in return" Christian, Moulin Rouge |
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#3 (permalink) |
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DVDFile HT Award Winner
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Western Canada
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Well written with some great points.
CH DVD ??? F
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#4 (permalink) | |
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Actor
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: "Vyenna", VA
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Quote:
But let me state this clearly. I do agree with all three points that he lists. Hd-dvd has cheaper players, they have a complete spec, and they don't have any real competition for their players. However, I think it telling that the Microsoft exec won't state the profitability of the players being sold at the basement pricing. And as far as the comparison goes for Harry Potter, I can state now that the same ratio that separates blu-ray and hd-dvd will be apparent in the sales of Harry Potter in high def. Roughly 2:1 in favor of blu-ray. But we'll see of course.
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HOOK'EM!!! UT LONGHORNS - National Champs 2005-2006!!! http://ganthc.youaremighty.com |
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#5 (permalink) |
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It's Good to Play Together
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: NJ, USA
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Frankie, CH DVD is the official hidef format of China. It is essentially HD DVD with different firmware to accomodate exclusive Chinese discs (China wanted their own format). Put a HD DVD firmware chip in a CH DVD player and you have an HD DVD player and vice versa. The format has just begun rolling out and all of the initial CH DVD players are based on the Toshiba HD-A3 reference design.
And ganthc, you are off in virtually all of your points. The "Paramount" story has never been officially proved and was largely fueled by a Bill Hunt rumor which he was forced to retract; on the record Paramount has officially stated the deal is indefinite and no money changed hands. Next, the same source that reported the Onkyo "discontinued" (foreign A/V mag) is now stating that they were in error and that it is not discontinued, but rather simply in short supply in Europe. The Samsung has Blu-Ray attached and... who cares? Did you forget to mention that Samsung recently cancelled their BD-P2400 Blu-Ray player annoucement, leaving the HD DVD/BD combo BD-UP5000 as their new flagship model? Venturer "can't compete with the A3"? The Venturer is based on A3 reference design, however it saves costs by having a smaller and cheaper chassis (no big open spaces between PCBs as is the case with HD-A3). Where is the RCA in making HD DVD? Well, RCA stopped making HD DVD players after 1st gen because the RCA brand was subsequently sold off to a company that had no interest in the hidef disc market. LG is also making dual players, and Meridian is working on an HD DVD product. Many more Chinese CEs will join in the fun next year. On the whole, though, it doesn't matter anymore. Ever hear of iPod/iTunes? Zune/Zune Marketplace? Entire media formats based on one singular CE brand. And lets not forget those big brand names like "Apex" and "Oppo" that KO'd the traditional Pioneer, Panasonic, Sony, etc Japanese manufacturers in the DVD market. Needing a vast array of well-known brand names for a media format is very much a 20th century affair. As for Harry Potter, it will be interesting to see the results. Based on HMM, the recent Ocean's Thirteen only managed 1.6:1 despite it being the type of movie the BD base usually snaps up in droves (guns, guns, guns!)
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For every shadow, no matter how deep, is threatened by morning light. Last edited by Ruined : 12-07-2007 at 05:51 AM. |
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#6 (permalink) | |
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Would Make a Good Incubus
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: nowhere near Nebraska
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And let’s not forget the fact that Tron turned the Frisbee into an instrument of righteous smiting. |
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#7 (permalink) |
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It's Good to Play Together
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: NJ, USA
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I didn't specify that they had to be loaded guns
![]() But, if you prefer, a nice "Tough Guy"/gangster piece which matches up with the PS3 base quite well (I'm sure you understood what I meant with my first comment, anyway). Although I'm not sure any movie could match up better than 300.
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For every shadow, no matter how deep, is threatened by morning light. |
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#8 (permalink) | |
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Would Make a Good Incubus
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: nowhere near Nebraska
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And let’s not forget the fact that Tron turned the Frisbee into an instrument of righteous smiting. |
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#9 (permalink) | |||||
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Actor
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: "Vyenna", VA
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HOOK'EM!!! UT LONGHORNS - National Champs 2005-2006!!! http://ganthc.youaremighty.com |
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#10 (permalink) | |||||||
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It's Good to Play Together
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: NJ, USA
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http://www.editorandpublisher.com/ea...ent_id=1892916 And, the official word on why Paramount "dumped" Blu-Ray straight from Paramount: http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,13...y/article.html Quote:
![]() Onkyo HD805 "cancelled" rumor turns out to be a reporting mistake: http://translate.google.com/translat...hl=en&ie=UTF-8 And, some consumers actually have received their Onkyo HD DVD orders and are already posting their impressions on AVSFORUM: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=948569 Quote:
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For every shadow, no matter how deep, is threatened by morning light. Last edited by Ruined : 12-07-2007 at 03:30 PM. |
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#11 (permalink) |
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Actor
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: canada
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I'm too lazy & busy to read that big chunk of article. I'll re-visit & refute every point made in it though.
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DVD, HD DVD & BD Collection Finished supporting High-Def. Time for Blu to go mainstream. |
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#12 (permalink) |
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Actor
Join Date: Jul 2007
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Making a statement that you'll refute every point in an article not yet read is in itself very telling.
Reminds me of the cops and detectives who make up their mind who the guilty party is in an investigation then attempt to find and present only the evidence that supports their decision. Why not just keep a relatively open mind while you read it. and see if their are valid points being made?
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The Eyes of the City are Mine! Anguish - 1987 |
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#13 (permalink) |
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Actor
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Trenton, Ohio 45067
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blah blah blah blah, after all the debate and speculation, it is sales that speak volumes and week after week, blu ray wins. I own and HD DVD player smply because it is cheap, but in the end, blu ray is going to win, the numbers speak for themselves. I think that all the super reduced priced toshiba deals are a last ditch effort to get some numbers and change things around. They can't keep it up wihtout going belly up.
Many of you will argue that their recent sales are not fire sales, but come on. Also why are the so many blu ray software deals. To me ths is because they have no problem sellling hardware, thus they can discount the software through bogo free sales. I mean the warner sale speaks volumes about things. Lets compare warner rankings between the two Title Blu-ray Rank HD DVD Rank 16 Blocks 672 38208 2001: A Space Odyssey 561 1055 300 41 921 Alexander 255 4023 Ant Bully 2608 50021 ATL 55800 33932 Aviator 6389 9031 Battle of the Bulge 869 16200 Beerfest 2718 21482 Best of Blu-ray, Action 9001 12931 Best of Blu-ray, Family 24046 16889 Best of Blu-Ray, Volume One 55 22351 Best of Blu-Ray, Volume Three 7846 18761 Best of Blu-Ray, Volume Two 53 14979 Blazing Saddles 15543 6526 Blood Diamond 105 891 Blue Planet 2938 2790 Bullitt 1709 11530 Christmas Story 132 1334 Christmas Vacation 141 1366 Clockwork Orange 3004 3151 Corpse Bride 744 18938 Cowboys 3332 25367 Deliverance 506 14188 Departed 49 3058 Dirty Dozen 615 16902 Dog Day Afternoon 1504 36197 Enter the Dragon 228 15192 Eyes Wide Shut 5181 6228 Firewall 4788 39497 Fountain 246 8075 Fugitive 395 15222 Full Metal Jacket 2480 3865 Full Metal Jacket 749 18156 Galapagos 1766 2192 Getaway 24512 44096 Gods and Generals 3811 27886 Good Night, and Good Luck. 677 39159 Goodfellas 128 3115 Gothika 4215 55412 Happy Feet 236 8563 House of Wax 1708 42088 Jailhouse Rock 5249 17619 Kiss Kiss Bang Bang 1274 22367 Lady in the Water 3693 31236 Lake House 2757 71505 Last Samurai 191 994 Lethal Weapon 1736 23549 Lethal Weapon 2 464 18071 Letters from Iwo Jima 158 3868 License to Wed 30723 13299 March of the Penguins 372 6997 Million Dollar Baby 1688 17567 Music and Lyrics 795 12674 National Geographic: Relentless Enemies 850 17005 Nip/Tuck: The Complete Fourth Season 14245 13389 Ocean's Giftset 955 1275 Ocean's Thirteen 2308 2494 Omega Man 4789 4199 Out for Justice 25377 34169 Phantom of the Opera 284 1162 Planet Earth: The Complete Series 52 16 Polar Express 1804 1826 Purple Rain 2955 18131 Reaping 16161 15287 Return to House on Haunted Hill 19883 34753 Rio Bravo 696 5539 Road Warrior 264 7343 Room with a View 12067 11475 Rumor Has It... 7641 47473 Scanner Darkly 463 13659 Scooby-Doo 5793 33851 Searchers 528 3046 Shining 2688 910 Smallville: The Complete Sixth Season 6795 4645 Sopranos: Season Six, Part One 14462 11559 Sopranos: Season Six, Part Two 6131 Space Cowboys 2547 30765 Superman 1024 9159 Superman II 1048 20476 Superman Returns 572 16506 Swordfish 1478 19377 Syriana 2109 29136 TMNT 248 12708 Training Day 962 14773 Troy 48 4480 Twilight Zone: The Movie 29501 18621 Under Siege 610 20677 Unforgiven 237 5108 Viva Las Vegas 1345 16839 We Are Marshall 461 10074 Wicker Man 53855 42287 Wild Bunch 386 8002 Wyatt Earp 492 9575 Looking at those nubers it is hard to argue that HD DVD is competitive. Also business week is predicting that warner is about to go BD eclusive. They are not the only ones saying it either. If that happens, it is over, end of story. Last edited by jbat31 : 12-07-2007 at 04:37 PM. |
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#14 (permalink) |
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Actor
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Glen Burnie, MD, USA
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So movies that are on sale have a higher sales ranking than movies that aren't on sale? Hrmmm... Wouldn't have guessed that one.
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#18 (permalink) | |
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Actor
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Glen Burnie, MD, USA
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Or just maybe the BDA subsidized Amazon/Warner to have a BOGO sale.
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#19 (permalink) |
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Actor
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: canada
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Well if its true that Warner will pick its format of choice based on Q4 sales you gotta think its a bit odd they are having BOGO sales. Also I'd like to know if BD holds a 2:1 margin over HD DVD too. + I'd like to know if Warner will count New Line's BD titles just for kicks.
Will be interesting anyway when they announce their decision.
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DVD, HD DVD & BD Collection Finished supporting High-Def. Time for Blu to go mainstream. |
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#20 (permalink) |
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Actor
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: UK
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If Warner Bros do pickup a side, don't think it will be solely based on Q4 sales figures for disc's, think they will be looking at hardware sales, production costs (as HD-DVD is cheaper to produce than Blu ray), also don't Warner Bros have a better stake in HD-DVD royalties.
Last edited by buckster666 : 12-09-2007 at 08:27 PM. Reason: spelling mistake |
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#21 (permalink) |
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Actor
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Ontario, Canada
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Regardless of who wins this war I can never see myself owning a Sony product. I just dislike the company that much. I am not even sure why, I just do. I bought a Toshiba A3 last weekend and will ride it out. So far it has been perfect. If Sony wins and all that is available down the road is Blu-ray then I will stick to my standard DVD's or watch all my HD movies via satellite.
I just cant support Sony, now, or ever. |
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#22 (permalink) | |
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Would Make a Good Incubus
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: nowhere near Nebraska
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Quote:
__________________
And let’s not forget the fact that Tron turned the Frisbee into an instrument of righteous smiting. |
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