Speculation of next viable format? - DVDfile.com forum for DVD, Blu-Ray, and HD-DVD

EM3 · 02-22-2008, 09:59 PM

I'm not sure if this will fly here but does anyone care to speculate as to what the next format for movies might be? Disc based, card based etc. I could picture movies coming on something like SD memory cards or something similar and a small reader to act as a player. Just think how many of these types of movies would fit where your current collection resides!

Have fun!

tomdkat · 02-22-2008, 10:30 PM

Electronic distribution. I think Comcast has already positioned itself for this through their "Blast" service. Downloads over the Internet (or though other high-speed connections) will be what's next. I don't know how long of a future physical media really has. Maybe 10-20 years?

Peace...

MooglePorn · 02-22-2008, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomdkat

Electronic distribution. I think Comcast has already positioned itself for this through their "Blast" service. Downloads over the Internet (or though other high-speed connections) will be what's next. I don't know how long of a future physical media really has. Maybe 10-20 years?

Peace...

Yep... matter of fact, this will be the next big format, in my opinion. BD will never reach DVD status.

ganthc · 02-22-2008, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MooglePorn

Yep... matter of fact, this will be the next big format, in my opinion. BD will never reach DVD status.

Well, the internet will really have to speed up for people to turn to downloading. And the computer-savvy of the people at large will have to increase as well. There is one thing for someone to just put in a disc on a player and watch a movie, and quite another for them to have to download it off their computer. Pay-per-view is possible via cable, but I don't see that challenging dvd right now as it is. The prices on pay-per-view would have to decrease DRASTICALLY for that to happen.

tomdkat · 02-22-2008, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ganthc

Well, the internet will really have to speed up for people to turn to downloading.

It would be interesting to find out two thinsg:

What percentage of current Internet bandwidth is being used (in total)?
How much more bandwidth would be needed to support electronic distribution of movies (video & audio) on a large scale? (Including technologies like multi-cast)

Quote:

And the computer-savvy of the people at large will have to increase as well.

I'm not sure about that. People tend to assume "Internet download" means "computer download" but connecting a set-top box to your broadband Internet connection still uses the Internet to download but doesn't involve your computer.

Quote:

Pay-per-view is possible via cable, but I don't see that challenging dvd right now as it is. The prices on pay-per-view would have to decrease DRASTICALLY for that to happen.

I don't know since the value of convenience might be the more important factor. If PPV prices go UP, I can see there being a problem but for those who watch movies infrequently, PPV can be a great option.

Peace...

ganthc · 02-22-2008, 11:35 PM

I just don't see the current ppv system beating out disc media. It will have to be some other way, perhaps the way you described in the middle. But for it to gain traction, and not be destroyed by the HT media and forums, it will need to be a great picture and sound quality. Otherwise, you won't get favorable reviews from tech and HT media to progress your format. It has to be able to deliver quality. HDM has raised the bar on what to expect from your programming.

tomdkat · 02-22-2008, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ganthc

I just don't see the current ppv system beating out disc media.

Ok, I'll give you this. I'm sure the current PPV model will evolve into something else but the current model.. I don't know what factors contribute more to people using or not using PPV. My brother rents from Blockbuster (even online I think) and watches PPV with some regularity.

Quote:

But for it to gain traction, and not be destroyed by the HT media and forums, it will need to be a great picture and sound quality. Otherwise, you won't get favorable reviews from tech and HT media to progress your format. It has to be able to deliver quality. HDM has raised the bar on what to expect from your programming.

I think this is where VC-1 can really shine. Small size yet great performance!

Peace...

MooglePorn · 02-22-2008, 11:48 PM

Steam on PC is very successful and most games on there are 5GB or more to download... BioShock, Orange Box, etc.... People are not opposed to huge downloads if they get a quality product for a good price and don't have to store packaging or worry about scratched discs.

If we're talking 50GB BD-size downloads then yes, that could be a while... but 720p and 5.1 surround will be good enough for the VAST majority of people.

tomdkat · 02-22-2008, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MooglePorn

People are not opposed to huge downloads if they get a quality product for a good price and don't have to store packaging or worry about scratched discs.

I do agree there's certainly something to be said for value of a product.

Peace...

Pirate · 02-22-2008, 11:51 PM

USB thumb drives. Boxes of them.

tomdkat · 02-22-2008, 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pirate

USB thumb drives. Boxes of them.

That or carrier pidgeons. There's something to be said about "old school".

Peace...

Vonner · 02-23-2008, 12:16 AM

The simple fact that some people are already thinking about the next format means HDM (Blu-Ray) is not going to reach the masses.

I like physical media. Down with downloads!

Shawn Watson · 02-23-2008, 12:17 AM

HD DVD 2

Or some small microchip you tuck in underneath your eyelids and LIVE the movie.

Shawn

Pirate · 02-23-2008, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomdkat

That or carrier pidgeons. There's something to be said about "old school".

Peace...

Yes! I love Netflix. If only they'd shit on my car when they delivered movies.

tomdkat · 02-23-2008, 12:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pirate

Yes! I love Netflix. If only they'd shit on my car when they delivered movies.

ithinkiggycandothatforyoubutonlyforafee.

Peace...

orko007 · 02-23-2008, 12:41 AM

Internet will need to improve drastically. Our speeds are pathetic in comparison to North America, not to mention the amount of download allowance you would need. Its already $70 for 20GB. You'd need a massive amount.

If it happens I hope physical media still has a place, as this is and will be my preferred option. Heck I don't even download songs, I buy a CD

dugpa · 02-23-2008, 12:55 AM

Downloads are the future sadly. Personally, I'm holding out for a jack that downloads the films directly into my brain. We won't just remember seeing the film, we'll remember living it!

Shawn Watson · 02-23-2008, 02:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dugpa

Downloads are the future sadly. Personally, I'm holding out for a jack that downloads the films directly into my brain. We won't just remember seeing the film, we'll remember living it!

Erm...wasn't that the Riddler's dream in Batman Forever?

Shawn

El Lancito · 02-23-2008, 06:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawn Watson

Erm...wasn't that the Riddler's dream in Batman Forever?

Shawn

Does this make Dugpa The Riddler? I'd say yes.

dugpa · 02-23-2008, 06:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Lancito

Does this make Dugpa The Riddler? I'd say yes.

Damn, you've found out my plan for world domination! Back to the drawing board now.

Ruined · 02-23-2008, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawn Watson

Erm...wasn't that the Riddler's dream in Batman Forever?

Shawn

Strange Days is a better match I think

Astrakan · 02-23-2008, 12:26 PM

Downloads are just a matter of time. Internet speeds are constantly being imroved. One recent example is the internet satellite that Japan just launched. It'll deliver speeds of up to 1.2 GB per second. And I'm sure that's just a start.

More on the satellite: http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/02/23/j...ite/index.html

KM

Taxi · 02-23-2008, 05:02 PM

I'm surprised that so many people feel that downloads are the future? Movie downloads pose two major problems: download speed and storage.

Of course the download speed issue will diminish over time, but I think the biggest issue there is going to be the so-called "net neutrality" issue. Once your internet provider starts charging you per MB downloaded, the grabbing a 25-50 GB HD movie won't seem so attractive.

I actually think storage is a bigger issue. If you've got a library of movies like I think most of us does (over 100 or more) then storing them on a local HD is kinda wasteful, since you're likely not watching most of them very often. And if your HD crashes.... ouch.

Ruined · 02-23-2008, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taxi

I actually think storage is a bigger issue.

500GB is $100 *right now*, and that is retail price. A big company is going to get even more of a discount... So in a couple years I'm sure 1TB and more will be the new "$100 standard" and the standard in download boxes. A high quality 1080p HD download will run you ~10-15GB, and a 1TB drive will hold ~70-100 movies at that rate. And of course, you can always expand via external drives (even today you can do that).

Quote:

If you've got a library of movies like I think most of us does (over 100 or more) then storing them on a local HD is kinda wasteful, since you're likely not watching most of them very often.

If you find yourself having a shitload of movies on your hard drive and actually don't like that concept, simply pick a download service that allows you to re-download your movies. Then you can keep your most watched on the hard drive and re-download the less-watched ones when you want to see them.

Quote:

And if your HD crashes.... ouch.

The current more popular download services will allow you to either: A) Re-download the content or B) Send your unit in to them and they will restore the content. So that is not as much an issue as it seems.

I'm sure once it gets popular the more deluxe download boxes will have RAID 1 anyway.

MooglePorn · 02-23-2008, 05:12 PM

Every format will have hurdles, and who knows how much time it will take, but downloads are seriously the future. Do you picture people on future Mars colonies with disc collections? I don't... everything being web-based is inevitable.

It's already started with hugely successful download services like iTunes and Steam. It will only continue as more and more people get better Internet, better understanding of the tech, etc. etc..

As for space, by the time downloaded movies become the mainstream format TB drives will probably cost $100.

EDIT: Ruined said a lot of what I would say... I don't get to say this often, so I will jump at the chance: Ruined, I agree completely!

biglyle · 02-23-2008, 05:53 PM

As a collector I have no interest at all in downloads. I cant be bothered with burning discs, printing covers etc. I just dont have the desire to do that. I like the physical media, and have no problem at all with walking into a best buy and dropping down a $20 for a disk I want.
For me the next format (AFTER CURRENT BLU_RAY LIFE OF 7-10 YEARS) would be more disks with higher resolution and better sound.

tomdkat · 02-23-2008, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taxi

Of course the download speed issue will diminish over time, but I think the biggest issue there is going to be the so-called "net neutrality" issue. Once your internet

02-22-2008, 09:59 PM	#1 (permalink)
EM3 "Suspended" Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Southern WV	Speculation of next viable format? I'm not sure if this will fly here but does anyone care to speculate as to what the next format for movies might be? Disc based, card based etc. I could picture movies coming on something like SD memory cards or something similar and a small reader to act as a player. Just think how many of these types of movies would fit where your current collection resides! Have fun! __________________ The beatings will continue until morale improves!

02-22-2008, 10:30 PM	#2 (permalink)
tomdkat Official Forum Warmonger "Dial Tone" Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Hayward, CA, USA	Electronic distribution. I think Comcast has already positioned itself for this through their "Blast" service. Downloads over the Internet (or though other high-speed connections) will be what's next. I don't know how long of a future physical media really has. Maybe 10-20 years? Peace... __________________ My DVD Aficionado List "At last we shall reveal ourselves to the Jedi, at last we shall have revenge!"

02-22-2008, 11:35 PM	#6 (permalink)
ganthc Actor Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: "Vyenna", VA	I just don't see the current ppv system beating out disc media. It will have to be some other way, perhaps the way you described in the middle. But for it to gain traction, and not be destroyed by the HT media and forums, it will need to be a great picture and sound quality. Otherwise, you won't get favorable reviews from tech and HT media to progress your format. It has to be able to deliver quality. HDM has raised the bar on what to expect from your programming. __________________ HOOK'EM!!! UT LONGHORNS - National Champs 2005-2006!!! http://ganthc.youaremighty.com

02-22-2008, 11:51 PM	#10 (permalink)
Pirate Moderator Emeritus Loves Yellow Subtitles Join Date: Jun 2003	USB thumb drives. Boxes of them. __________________ Early Adopting So You Don’t Have To.

02-23-2008, 12:16 AM	#12 (permalink)
Vonner Previously, on '24'... Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Minnesota	The simple fact that some people are already thinking about the next format means HDM (Blu-Ray) is not going to reach the masses. I like physical media. Down with downloads! __________________ I was inappropriately blunt, wasn't I? I do that a lot. - Chloe O'Brian

02-22-2008, 11:48 PM	#8 (permalink)
MooglePorn Actor Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Philadelphia, PA	Steam on PC is very successful and most games on there are 5GB or more to download... BioShock, Orange Box, etc.... People are not opposed to huge downloads if they get a quality product for a good price and don't have to store packaging or worry about scratched discs. If we're talking 50GB BD-size downloads then yes, that could be a while... but 720p and 5.1 surround will be good enough for the VAST majority of people.

02-23-2008, 12:17 AM	#13 (permalink)
Shawn Watson Actor Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: The Underverse	HD DVD 2 Or some small microchip you tuck in underneath your eyelids and LIVE the movie. Shawn __________________ A PTA meeting with cucumbers instead of parents.

02-23-2008, 12:41 AM	#16 (permalink)
orko007 Actor Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: AUSTRALIA	Internet will need to improve drastically. Our speeds are pathetic in comparison to North America, not to mention the amount of download allowance you would need. Its already $70 for 20GB. You'd need a massive amount. If it happens I hope physical media still has a place, as this is and will be my preferred option. Heck I don't even download songs, I buy a CD __________________ BLU-RAY THE CHOICE OF THE NEXT GENERATION!

02-23-2008, 12:55 AM	#17 (permalink)
dugpa Nothing But the Best Join Date: Sep 2004	Downloads are the future sadly. Personally, I'm holding out for a jack that downloads the films directly into my brain. We won't just remember seeing the film, we'll remember living it! __________________ DVD collection LD collection Will rent this sig space for blu-ray discs.

02-23-2008, 12:26 PM	#22 (permalink)
Astrakan Actor Join Date: May 2001 Location: Toronto, ON Canada	Downloads are just a matter of time. Internet speeds are constantly being imroved. One recent example is the internet satellite that Japan just launched. It'll deliver speeds of up to 1.2 GB per second. And I'm sure that's just a start. More on the satellite: http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/02/23/j...ite/index.html KM __________________ Blog, blog, bo blog. Banana, fana, fo flog. Me, my, mo mlog. Blog! DVD Profiler - The most features. The largest database. User-created plugins. Simply the best.

02-23-2008, 05:02 PM	#23 (permalink)
Taxi Admin Emeritus Join Date: Aug 1999 Location: Orygun	I'm surprised that so many people feel that downloads are the future? Movie downloads pose two major problems: download speed and storage. Of course the download speed issue will diminish over time, but I think the biggest issue there is going to be the so-called "net neutrality" issue. Once your internet provider starts charging you per MB downloaded, the grabbing a 25-50 GB HD movie won't seem so attractive. I actually think storage is a bigger issue. If you've got a library of movies like I think most of us does (over 100 or more) then storing them on a local HD is kinda wasteful, since you're likely not watching most of them very often. And if your HD crashes.... ouch. __________________ *Admin Emeritus* \| DDS#42 No, I am not back. Eschew obfuscation.

02-23-2008, 05:12 PM	#25 (permalink)
MooglePorn Actor Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Philadelphia, PA	Every format will have hurdles, and who knows how much time it will take, but downloads are seriously the future. Do you picture people on future Mars colonies with disc collections? I don't... everything being web-based is inevitable. It's already started with hugely successful download services like iTunes and Steam. It will only continue as more and more people get better Internet, better understanding of the tech, etc. etc.. As for space, by the time downloaded movies become the mainstream format TB drives will probably cost $100. EDIT: Ruined said a lot of what I would say... I don't get to say this often, so I will jump at the chance: Ruined, I agree completely!

02-23-2008, 05:53 PM	#26 (permalink)
biglyle Actor Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Ontario, Canada	As a collector I have no interest at all in downloads. I cant be bothered with burning discs, printing covers etc. I just dont have the desire to do that. I like the physical media, and have no problem at all with walking into a best buy and dropping down a $20 for a disk I want. For me the next format (AFTER CURRENT BLU_RAY LIFE OF 7-10 YEARS) would be more disks with higher resolution and better sound. __________________ http://forums.dvdfile.com/your-home-...w-theater.html I dont want downloads!