Is DVD dead, dying, or still going strong.

[jbat31]

I thought about putting this in the HD section, but thought no, this is about standard dvd. Right now, I am not interested in the HD formats. I have seen the comparrisons in store, which are bogus, as they used really horrible fake sd transfers and so on. Well, I am interested in the future when the format war is over and prices are down, but until then I will continue to buy SD for my movie collection. I am a huge movie fan and can enjoy my movies whether they are in SD or HD.

All that being said, what is DVD's future. Is it going to be around for a long time yet, a few years only or are we at the end of its lifespan. I truly feel SD will outsell and HD disc format for the next five or more years.

What are your thoughts

[Wirehed]

This is a perfect conversation for the SoapBox, our forum about the industry.




I think it will be a while before SD DVD goes away, it's widely accepted by consumers, retailers, and content providers. The High Def format war is turning a lot of people off to upgrading their already expensive equipment. That coupled with a large amount of confusion and the fact that's it's still very early in the HD-DVD cycle leads me to believe SD DVD will be quite healthy for quite a while to come.

But no format lasts for ever.

[Astrakan]

I've said it elsewhere and often, but I'm convinced that it won't be either of the current two HD formats that eventually dethrones standard DVDs.

They're here for the long haul, and whichever format wins the current format war, (if there even is a winner) it is destined to be a niche format, a la laserdisc, and won't ever gain mass market acceptance.

All IMHO of course.

KM

[limacharliewhiskey]

Right now, SD DVD is obviously the dominant format and will likely remain so for quite awhile, even though sales of DVDs are starting to plateau. That doesn't mean sales are going down, but it means there is no longer 10-15% yearly increases in sales.

It will likely take a long while before either HD format overtakes it, if that ever happens. I'm gonna say it will be at least 10 years before either HD format takes over 50% of the market. Part of this is based on how the HD programming on digital cable and satellite TV has gone, where it still remains a small portion of the programming. Most people simply don't wish to pay the premium prices for HD programming. I don't know what the price points are, but say regular cable is $40 per month, while digital cable with HD is $60-80 per month. It doesn't appear that a large number of people are switching to digital cable at the higher prices.

I seem the same correlation with HD DVD. Right now, SD DVD is at a price point that most people find acceptable for weekly viewing, and DVD rentals are priced at an affordable level for most consumers. Now, it's hard to say what the exact impact that the rental market had on DVD's mass acceptance by the average consumer, but it happened at around the same time that DVD became mainstream, in the 2001-2002 timeframe.

I don't think that either HD format gains mass acceptance until some sort of rental market is established for HD, and right now, Netflix is the only player, which is not enough. My local rental store, which was among the first DVD rental stores in 1999, has not yet touched HD, and neither has Blockbuster or Hollywood Video, the two biggest rental companies. I think for the average consumer to gain acceptance of HD, the rental market needs to be established. That's partly why laserdisc never gained mass acceptance, because LD rental stores were run by local independents.

[tomdkat]

SD-DVD will be here for many years to come and I'm not sure why anyone would think otherwise.

Something else to consider is electronic distribution vs physical media. Video OnDemand can make movies available without needing physical media but not necessarily the extra features that tend to come on a physical DVD release. If you're into the extra features, physical DVD releases are the obvious choice. If you're not into the extras (or not as much), physical media becomes less of an issue. Collectors will want to own physical media but I can also see collectors wanting to collect movies they like and the medium on which that movie is stored becomes less important as long as the movie itself is readily available.

We've seen no trend of SD-DVD releases slowing down and I don't think that will happen in the foreseeable future.

Peace...

[1138]

I definitely think SD-DVD is going to be around for a while more. It's too entrenched right now to just go away. We're just at the top of the wave and it's a wide one so it'll be a while before we start heading down.

[ganthc]

How long did VHS continue even after DVD had its strong foothold on the market. You went into a blockbuster and saw that half the store was still devoted to VHS tapes. That's changed recently, but for a long time you would see more VHS than DVD. The same will happen with whatever the next format is and SD DVD.

[limacharliewhiskey]

Originally Posted by ganthc

How long did VHS continue even after DVD had its strong foothold on the market. You went into a blockbuster and saw that half the store was still devoted to VHS tapes. That's changed recently, but for a long time you would see more VHS than DVD. The same will happen with whatever the next format is and SD DVD.

VHS didn't really disappear until about 2004 or early 2005, so there was a 7-to-8 year gap when both formats co-existed in a relatively healthy state.

I predict it will be longer for SD DVD.

[plissken99]

Originally Posted by limacharliewhiskey

I predict it will be longer for SD DVD.

Naturally, the nice thing about DVD was that you didn't need any new equipment, though the included 5.1 tracks on DVDs drove the want for multichannel sound systems more than anything else. With HD, not only do you need a $500 player, but a $1000+ display.

I have no doubt whichever wins will be like laserdisc for the next 5 years, give or take. But things are gradually shifting towards HD, most people will want one when their regular TV craps out. So I see a lot more HDTV saturation in the next 5-10 years.

[Bantam]

Originally Posted by plissken99

I have no doubt whichever wins will be like laserdisc for the next 5 years, give or take.

the FIRST thing i thought of when i saw this thread plissken!!