How long will DVD last? - DVDfile.com forum for DVD, Blu-Ray, and HD-DVD

Poppa Giorgio · 10-12-2001, 06:02 AM

With technology changing so fast and new media formats replacing the previous quicker and quicker every generation, how long will it be before our favorite format becomes extinct?

What will happen? How will it happen?

Chunkblower · 10-12-2001, 06:32 AM

Not until the studios have wrung every last penny they can from the consumer. They won't abandon the format as long as it's a cash cow. I think it'll take at least five to ten years before the format dies. The indtrouction of a new format will not nessacrily be the death knell for DVD. Remember when mini discs were supposed to replace CD's? Never happened, because the consumer was happy with CD's even though they were (at the time anyways) not the most versatile format. It's only a matter of time before DVD is as mainstream as VHS. The introduction of recordable DVD's will only strengthen DVD's market share and win over the holdouts who complain (as they did with CD's) "you can't record on them".

------------------
I am the eater of worlds, and of children. And YOU are next!

slade · 10-12-2001, 06:34 AM

well, I think the next thing that will happen in HD-DVD, which will require a new player, but it would likely play non HD-DVD's, so the discs would still be good. My guess is 7-8 more years before that happens.

I would guess that HD-DVD will be "the" format for a good decade or more before another format emerges.

I'm not at all worried though. As long as my discs work and my player plays, it need not be "the" format. Shoot, I'm considering buying an LD player so that I can get some titles that aren't/won't be on DVD.

------------------
It’s amazing that brain can generate enough power to keep those legs moving.

davros · 10-12-2001, 09:17 AM

at least a good 8-10 years (minimum)...

------------------
rock n roll

I AM THE ENEMY

mntwister · 10-12-2001, 09:20 AM

It is sad but true as stated in earlier posts here. The studios will milk every cent out of us as possible. They did it with laserdisc and their habit of releasing better versions months after I would spend 50.00 (I have 6 different Sound of Music laserdiscs, each a little better in quality). I think DVD is here to stay for a while, unfortunately, they will again milk our money and make us replace these discs with High Def versions later.

esc · 10-12-2001, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Chunkblower:The introduction of a new format will not nessacrily be the death knell for DVD....because the consumer was happy with CD's even though they were (at the time anyways) not the most versatile format.

yes, i have thought about this myself, HDDVD is coming, but i am wondering if people will accept a new format so soon. nothing can stop an idea whos time has come, and right now it is DVD, in just a few years movies on DVD are selling a million copies in 1 week. if HDDVD became widely available tomorrow it wouldnt be so readily accepted because people have their paradigm and it is DVD. they wont want to have to buy a new type of player so soon after this one has just become accepted.

blugill · 10-12-2001, 11:07 AM

It will take a very long time before a DVD replacement is made. I believe that the way that the VHS has stuck around is proof of that. It took years for a VCR to drop in price so much that everyone had 2 of them and it has taken a fraction of that time for DVD players to drop under 100 bucks! The studios aren't blind at all and will have a very happy huge Christmas Bonus in their stockings this year. If this year is a huge seller then you can bank on many unreleased stuff this coming year and in 03 for sure. They are still testing the waters so to speak in some respects I feel, and when a DVD player winds up under people's trees this year WOW watch it skyrocket next spring!

Dominik Pfleghaar · 10-12-2001, 02:11 PM

Considering the fact that dvd is already over 4 years old and still on it's way up, I don't think it will vanish all too soon.
LaserDisc was here for over 30 years or so, and VHS is still around, too.
I'll give dvd another 10-15 years.

------------------
Unca Dom
dvdfile.com Administrator
pfleghaar@dvdfile.com
My HT My dvd collection

Eye · 10-12-2001, 02:54 PM

Moving to the SoapBox forum. Please join the action there.

------------------
..:: Eye ::.. | Moderator | eye@dvdfile.com | Existence exists.

10-12-2001, 06:02 AM	#1 (permalink)
Poppa Giorgio Actor Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: New York, NY, US of A	How long will DVD last? With technology changing so fast and new media formats replacing the previous quicker and quicker every generation, how long will it be before our favorite format becomes extinct? What will happen? How will it happen?

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

10-12-2001, 06:32 AM	#2 (permalink)
Chunkblower Banned Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: 612 Wharf Avenue	Not until the studios have wrung every last penny they can from the consumer. They won't abandon the format as long as it's a cash cow. I think it'll take at least five to ten years before the format dies. The indtrouction of a new format will not nessacrily be the death knell for DVD. Remember when mini discs were supposed to replace CD's? Never happened, because the consumer was happy with CD's even though they were (at the time anyways) not the most versatile format. It's only a matter of time before DVD is as mainstream as VHS. The introduction of recordable DVD's will only strengthen DVD's market share and win over the holdouts who complain (as they did with CD's) "you can't record on them". ------------------ I am the eater of worlds, and of children. And YOU are next!

10-12-2001, 06:34 AM	#3 (permalink)
slade Film Class God Join Date: May 2001 Location: Oregon City, OR	well, I think the next thing that will happen in HD-DVD, which will require a new player, but it would likely play non HD-DVD's, so the discs would still be good. My guess is 7-8 more years before that happens. I would guess that HD-DVD will be "the" format for a good decade or more before another format emerges. I'm not at all worried though. As long as my discs work and my player plays, it need not be "the" format. Shoot, I'm considering buying an LD player so that I can get some titles that aren't/won't be on DVD. ------------------ It’s amazing that brain can generate enough power to keep those legs moving.

10-12-2001, 09:17 AM	#4 (permalink)
davros Actor Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: xDEICHLANDx	at least a good 8-10 years (minimum)... ------------------ rock n roll *I AM THE ENEMY*

10-12-2001, 09:20 AM	#5 (permalink)
mntwister Supporting Actor Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Minneapolis, MN USA	It is sad but true as stated in earlier posts here. The studios will milk every cent out of us as possible. They did it with laserdisc and their habit of releasing better versions months after I would spend 50.00 (I have 6 different Sound of Music laserdiscs, each a little better in quality). I think DVD is here to stay for a while, unfortunately, they will again milk our money and make us replace these discs with High Def versions later.

10-12-2001, 11:07 AM	#7 (permalink)
blugill Actor Join Date: Oct 2001	It will take a very long time before a DVD replacement is made. I believe that the way that the VHS has stuck around is proof of that. It took years for a VCR to drop in price so much that everyone had 2 of them and it has taken a fraction of that time for DVD players to drop under 100 bucks! The studios aren't blind at all and will have a very happy huge Christmas Bonus in their stockings this year. If this year is a huge seller then you can bank on many unreleased stuff this coming year and in 03 for sure. They are still testing the waters so to speak in some respects I feel, and when a DVD player winds up under people's trees this year WOW watch it skyrocket next spring!

10-12-2001, 02:11 PM	#8 (permalink)
Dominik Pfleghaar Moderator Emeritus Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: Elm Street 123	Considering the fact that dvd is already over 4 years old and still on it's way up, I don't think it will vanish all too soon. LaserDisc was here for over 30 years or so, and VHS is still around, too. I'll give dvd another 10-15 years. ------------------ Unca Dom dvdfile.com Administrator pfleghaar@dvdfile.com My HT My dvd collection

10-12-2001, 02:54 PM	#9 (permalink)
Eye Moderator Emeritus Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Usa	Moving to the SoapBox forum. Please join the action there. ------------------ ..:: Eye ::.. \| Moderator \| eye@dvdfile.com \| Existence exists.